@MikeB

It had a 68% drop off from opening week, not good...mean while CoD:BO has been on the market for much longer and continues to sell well.

Legs...something the PS3 market has lacked hence it took an installed base of 43+M to finally sell 5M+. That's less than 12% market penetration. You look at the real big titles on Nintendo or 360 and you have much higher % penetrations to block buster titles.

I cite my cousin as a consumer heavily vested with a Sony 46" HDTV and PS3 since 6 months after launch of the PS3 and only has purchased 4 or 5 games in total. Two of them were Madden. He just got it primarily as a BR player.

You can say the typical Wii owner just buys shovelware or kiddie games and quality titles like SSBB still sell to 30% of the market, but you have to admit the typical PS3 owner just watches blu rays. The games market isn't anywhere near the 360 or Wii.

Next week, GT5 is probably history from the charts...in just about all territories.

That 5+M sales was just the last big blip on the heart monitor of PS3 games sales...

Last edited by Lou on 07-Dec-2010 at 04:19 AM.

@Lou

Quote:

It had a 68% drop off from opening week, not good...mean while CoD

As stated it is still number 1 for the UK, which is a good position while going into the holiday season.

Large drops for second week sales are normal, the biggest fans will buy the game at launch and will have pre-ordered the game.

For example second week sales of the bestseller Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 dropped by 86% for the United Kingdom. Understand?

Spoiler warning: Leaked footage, 10 minutes with Killzone 3 single player campaign:

http://www.examiner.com/console-gaming-in-national/catch-ten-minutes-of-killzone-3-s-single-player-with-a-giant-mech

A must see for PS3 and Killzone naysayers, for the rest maybe it's better to wait for the final release.

Killzone 3 sports impressive graphics including MLAA(+), a stereoscopic 3D mode, Playstation Move support and new gameplay mechanics such as awesome jetpacks!

@MikeB

Quote:

So combined the last year (4 quarters) Sony sold 3.6 million more PS3s than Microsoft sold 360s.

Your latest prediction is by Summer 2011 the PS3 would outsell the 360. At present the 2 consoles are about 4million apart. This is a bit more than the ground Sony made up in a year. In the equivalent 2 quarters Sony sold about 2Million more. So, assuming 360 sales stay flat Sony would have to double sales this quarter and next. My question is how do you picture the PS3 wins by summer 2011 will come true?

360 sales in Nov Not offical numbers but early signs are the 360 beat the Wii and the PS3 in Nov 2010. (Doesn't say but I believe they are talking US) 360 sales estimated to be up 31%. Wii down 23%. PS3 down 8%. Seems the Kinect, at least in the US, is well liked as Kinect Adventures is outselling GT5. And interesting I'd have though the PS3 would be up this Nov as one could get a PS3 free in a bundle with a Sony TV purchase. Early signs of your PS3 win by Summer 2011 seem to be in the wrong direction.

Lens of Truth did a GT5 vs Forza 3 comparision. They found the same thing as me, GT5 appears to screen tear. Strange for a game that spent 5 years in development. I'm sure GT5 will be a best seller if not the best selling PS3 game and is enjoyable. For me the 5 years of development hype doesn't live up to the end product.

@MikeB

Quote:

A must see for PS3 and Killzone naysayers, for the rest maybe it's better to wait for the final release.

KZ3 appears to have split screen online co-op. About time! This was a serious need for KZ, something Halo 2 did last gen.

Quote:

new gameplay mechanics such as awesome jetpacks

New for KZ you mean. They had jetpacks in Halo:Reach.

I know you hate the Halo series. (Even if Reach sells more copies the first day then KZ sold in it's lifetime.) I welcome KZ adding features. Though I get a slight chuckle to see you all a twitter about features in KZ that Halo has already conquered.

@Lou

Quote:

The games market isn't anywhere near the 360 or Wii.

Looking at Nov US sales, according to Patcher, it seems the 360 sold $700Million in software and the PS3 sold about $395Million, in stores. The ratio of sales is about the same as the ratio of ownership. Though that picture is very small, just Nov 2010.

Quote:

You look at the real big titles on Nintendo or 360 and you have much higher % penetrations to block buster titles.

Halo3 opened at $170Million making it the largest entertainment opening ever at the time. Halo:Reach bested that at $200Million. I believe the only thing bigger than Reach was the $232 Million Avatar opening. The run away block buster is clear. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Halo Reach Nobel Map Pack to break the sales of most PS3 games it's first week.

EDIT: Found this recent item...
In game sales of more than 1 million the PS3 brings up the rear with 74. Next is the top console selling Wii at 91. And taking the top spot is the current 2nd place in ownership by console the Xbox 360 with 109 games.

EDIT2: MikeB often invokes the 'time on the market' point to highlight how the PS3 is doing better than the 360. So let's do that... 74/4 years = 18 titles per year of million+ for the PS3. 91/4 years = 23 titles per year of million+ for the Wii and 109/5 years = 22 titles per year of million+ for the 360.

Seems to me you are spot on that the PS3 games market isn't near the other two consoles.

Last edited by BrianK on 07-Dec-2010 at 02:03 PM.
Last edited by BrianK on 07-Dec-2010 at 11:51 AM.

@BrianK

Quote:

At present the 2 consoles are about 4million apart.

According to the fiscal year reports 2.9 million to be exact. The PS3 needs to outsell the XBox 360 this holiday season for its worldwide totals, but not by that much.

Sony has a killer line-up for Q1 2011, including LittleBigPlanet 2, Killzone 3 and Motorstorm: Apocalypse. I think it's still possible.

@MikeB

But it was still 86% of a much larger pie. Fanboys may care about individual title+console sales, but publishers care about "all formats" for cross-platform titles.
When you look at the cross-platform titles then you see one platform greatly out-selling the other despite the same installed base, then you know you got issues.

@MikeB

Quote:

MikeB wrote: @BrianK Sony has a killer line-up for Qx of 20yy

Now how many times have I heard this before?
It really won't matter like it continuously hasn't mattered.
Sales of those titles' prequels didn't do much before.

@BrianK

Quote:

Lens of Truth did a GT5 vs Forza 3 comparision.

The comparison is flawed to begin with, they don't state if they are comparing 1080p GT5 mode with QAA or 720p GT5 with 4x MSAA.

To me GT5 looks very smooth, also according to many reviewers. The experience is what matters more than misleading benchmarks and Gran Turismo 5 has a "real car driving" feeling to it that Forza 3 lacks for me.

Digital Foundry tech analysis, which I think is far more in-depth:

"There are so many discussion points to cover in a game as vast and as technologically advanced as Gran Turismo 5"

"achieving 4x MSAA with frame-rates and details as high as this is indeed a technical achievement unmatched by any of Polyphony's competitors (Forza 3 is 720p with 2x MSAA, for example), and there is a definite feeling that Kazunori Yamauchi's team likes to push boundaries like this."

"a sense that you're being immersed in a CG-quality world"

"Gran Turismo 5 works in 3D, and works well, because Polyphony has made use of it as a tool in improving the experience of its "Real Driving Simulator". "

"It's some of the most impressive 3D we've seen so far because it has a clear purpose within the structure of the game, and helps make it better to play in some respects."

Bottom-line:

"Gran Turismo 5 is in many ways a remarkable technical achievement over and above the range of cool little features Polyphony has implemented. In terms of the basic graphical make-up of the game, the level of detail Polyphony Digital crams into a 60Hz refresh effortlessly seems to exceed the quality of many, if not most, of the 30FPS racers out there."

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-gran-turismo-5-tech-analysis

@Lou

Quote:

Lou wrote: Quote: MikeB wrote:Sony has a killer line-up for Qx of 20yy Now how many times have I heard this before? It really won't matter like it continuously hasn't mattered. Sales of those titles' prequels didn't do much before.

I agree. We've heard every year the PS3 has a killer line up. How GT5 is the killer game certainly to push the PS3 ahead in sales. The PS3 is doing well but nothing stellar and certainly 1/2 the sales of the market leading Wii. PS2 #1 while the PS3 struggles for #2. With a bigger market this gen, compared to last gen, the PS3 isn't doing as well as the PS2 in sales or profits. It'll be interesting to see if the PS3 can break even financially before the next gen starts, I'm dubious.

@MikeB

Quote:

he comparison is flawed to begin with, they don't state if they are comparing 1080p GT5 mode with QAA or 720p GT5 with 4x MSAA.

Your point is overly critical of a review. It's not that screen tearing doesn't occur it's that you want to know which mode they saw the screen tearing in so therefore throwout the review? Classic fanboism!

NOTE: my point was to indicate that I wasn't the only one that noticed some screen issues with this game. As I said I'm not a racer fan so I won't buy this or won't likely borrow it. If someone happens to bring it over I'll track down the mode with screen tearing for ya.

@BrianK

Quote:

New for KZ you mean. They had jetpacks in Halo:Reach.

I'm having a deja vu here, remember the awesome PS3 exclusive Warhawk from 2007?

@BrianK

Quote:

KZ3 appears to have split screen online co-op.

Split screen online co-op doesn't make sense.

Full screen online co-op like in Uncharted 2 makes more sense.
Or off-line splitscreen co-op like in PS3 launch title Resistance: Fall of Man

Why would you want splitscreen when playing games with friends online, rather than a fullscreen?

@BrianK

Quote:

EDIT2: MikeB often invokes the 'time on the market' point to highlight how the PS3 is doing better than the 360. So let's do that... 74/4 years = 18 titles per year of million+ for the PS3.

Sorry, but we don't have such data at this point. We only have lifetime software sales up to the last fiscal year report and we have per year software sales.

And more PS3 games were sold last year than XBox 360 games, this despite a larger installbase for the XBox 360. The PS3 pie was thus already bigger for publishers. Various multi-platform publishers also generated more revenue and profits on the PS3. Call of Duty is an exception, but that's just one of many franchices.

If XBox 360 users are Call of Duty fanboys why should this matter so much to other publishers who do not own the Call of Duty trademark? Why would they care if Halo sells by the truckloads if they don't own the Halo trademark?

@MikeB

Quote:

Split screen online co-op doesn't make sense. Why would you want splitscreen when playing games with friends online, rather than a fullscreen?

Choice 1 : Two players at home share a single full screen for online co-op. (a)What generally results is resolution is kept but motion is more limited because one must render both characters on the screen. (b)Or what may result is motion is less limited but resolution scales out. Let's say one player runs left and one player runs both to their respective edges of the payfield. Either that can't happen (a) or the resolution changes and the characters might be very very small (b). I've even seen games where (b) happens and it seems you are disconnected from the field of play and in a helicopter watching or something.

I understand (1) is your personal perference... That's all cool afterall it's personal perference.

Choice 2 : Two players at home have a split screen. It's two outputs, one for each player, on each side (right/left or top/bottom depending). Each player can run around without the field scaling to size both and definitely motion isn't limited by your friend.

Myself this is my preference. I don't like being limited in movement and I don't like the field scaling out to accomodate us both. I'd rather see what my character can see and not be viewing both of us at once. (Unless of course it makes sense that guy sitting on my couch's character is within my natural 20/20 line of sight.) IMO it's more connected in this sort of arrangement.

@BrianK

I greatly prefer fullscreen gameplay,IMO it's less distracting, you have twice or more the screen size to look at and feels more realistic (you can't look through the eyes of your virtual buddy).

For example Motorstorm: Pacific Rift you can play with 4 people splitscreen resulting into tiny windows to look at with lots of distractions from what the others are doing. I greatly prefer to play Motorstorm online with a fullscreen instead.

Same with Warhawk. Of course it's unlikely you have 4 PS3s and HDTVs in your home to setup a LAN, so its support for 4 player splitscreen makes sense in addition to its LAN and online features.

Last edited by MikeB on 07-Dec-2010 at 03:58 PM.

@BrianK

Quote:

We've heard every year the PS3 has a killer line up. How GT5 is the killer game certainly to push the PS3 ahead in sales.

IMO it are mainly the exclusives which pushed the PS3 so far ahead of the XBox 360. Often increased sales spikes despite the immediate sharp dropoff are helping to generate sustained increased sales, for example since the release of Final Fantasy XIII PS3 sales for Japan are much higher (note there's also a second hand market, so sustained growth doesn't per se mean new game sales)

With the release of GT5 PS3 sales in Japan jumped from 29.058 the week before (again best selling home console for the week) to a whopping 68.840 unit sales for the week. Meanwhile XBox 360 sales dropped from 7k to 4k in Japan.

@MikeB

Quote:

MikeB wrote: @BrianK Quote: We've heard every year the PS3 has a killer line up. How GT5 is the killer game certainly to push the PS3 ahead in sales. IMO it are mainly the exclusives which pushed the PS3 so far ahead of the XBox 360. Often increased sales spikes despite the immediate sharp dropoff are helping to generate sustained increased sales, for example since the release of Final Fantasy XIII PS3 sales for Japan are much higher (note there's also a second hand market, so sustained growth doesn't per se mean new game sales) With the release of GT5 PS3 sales in Japan jumped from 29.058 the week before (again best selling home console for the week) to a whopping 68.840 unit sales for the week. Meanwhile XBox 360 sales dropped from 7k to 4k in Japan.

Why waste time comparing little blips. You continue to fight small battles in a losing war.
Microsoft will not win the battle of Japan - we get that.
You keep saying PS3 software sales out-pace 360 sales - but I don't see it. Show me.
I've pointed out many times that the other systems' software outsells the PS3. So I have no idea where you get your information from. If you are again limiting your scope to a particular market, then again you continue to win useless battles in a losing war. Companies are global. No one market can dominate the globe.

If you lived in a village with 10 people and only 3 owned consoles and all 3 were the PS3...in a planet of billions of people, what have you won?

@MikeB

Quote:

I greatly prefer fullscreen gameplay

I do too. Often times sharing that fullscreen with another is limiting. Splitscreen gets rid of those limitations. As you say it's likely better to have 4 PS3s and 4 HDTVs and of course 4 copies of the game.

This christmas we're moving to 2 HDTVs and 2 360s. (We still have the one PS3 but it's often me that uses it. As a rule guests and the rest of the family prefer the 360.)