@TMTisFree

Quote:

TMTisFree wrote: @Dandy Quote: If you want to be taken serious here, your way of affronting other panellists certainly is counterproductive. ... given the various hypocrite/dishonest behaviours and endless use of fallacious practices exhibited post after post to argue, alarmist proponents pleasing themselves with an own one-sided illiteracy only demonstrative of a total lack of scientific culture. Pointing out numerous and repetitive alarmist failures is nevertheless a good exercise to deconstruct myth and underlying ideological strategy.

What really amuses me is that you insist in laymen have to have a "scientific culture".


And that you dare to claim not to have a political agenda, given all those hollow poliotical phrases in your inflammatory pamphlet above...

_________________
Ciao

Dandy
__________________________________________
If someone enjoys marching to military music, then I already despise him.
He got his brain accidently - the bone marrow in his back would have been sufficient for him!
(Albert Einstein)

@TMTisFree

Quote:

TMTisFree wrote: @BrianK ... 3/ I am for technology advancement. ... Or do you consider every progress as a perversion or every person as an hooligan?

I'm for technical advancement, too.
And I don't consider every progress as a perversion per se.
But I do consider e.g. the advertising slogan of a German chain saw manufacturer "Stiehl - advancement in the forest" as pervers.

I've been taught "Trading is the systematic meeting of human demands."
But when I look around I only see "artificial generation of demands mankind would not have otherwise" - and that's pervers in my opinion, too.

The German physicist Burkhard Heim calls such characters "mercantile perverted minds" - and I fully agree with him.

Quote:

TMTisFree wrote: Meanwhile we have all the oil we need until the next best thing becomes technologically feasible and commercially viable ;

You mean we should proceed as before and not worry?
Sorry - but this reminds me of blindfolded trying to cross a busy highway - and that's equally pervers in my opinion.
Or maybe "masochistic" is the better suited term - but nevertheless - masochism is generally considered as perversion, too.

_________________
Ciao

Dandy
__________________________________________
If someone enjoys marching to military music, then I already despise him.
He got his brain accidently - the bone marrow in his back would have been sufficient for him!
(Albert Einstein)

@Dandy

Quote:

What really amuses me is that you insist in laymen have to have a "scientific culture".

You misread: I only noted their total lack of it and the difficulty to discuss rationally with non-rational entity. '[S]cientific culture' could be translated with 'everyday language' words (such as honesty, curiosity, impartiality, rationality, courtesy, integrity, and some others more difficult to resume in one word). I use it everyday.

Quote:

And that you dare to claim not to have a political agenda, given all those hollow poliotical phrases in your inflammatory pamphlet above...

I am not sure where a link with politics is to be found in my §: our definitions of politics most probably differ.

Bye,
TMTisFree

_________________
The engineering approach to our non-problems: "build a better washer".
The scientific approach to our non-problems: "find a new energy source".
The environmentalist approach to our non-problems: "stop washing your shirts".

@Dandy

Quote:

I've been taught "Trading is the systematic meeting of human demands." But when I look around I only see "artificial generation of demands mankind would not have otherwise"

It is called consumerism. I've been in rebellion against it all my adult life to little effect. If there were lots of people who turned their backs on consumerism then the economy as at present understood would collapse, - but desire rules and "maximisation of profits" corrupts everything. I'm quite in agreement with you.

Noel

@Dandy

Quote:

But I do consider e.g. the advertising slogan of a German chain saw manufacturer "Stiehl - advancement in the forest" as pervers.

Why?

Quote:

I've been taught "Trading is the systematic meeting of human demands."

Theoretic or historical definitions are good but they are somewhat different in the real world. When I produce a ton of wheat, it is traded up to 20 times before reaching its final buyer: I don't quite see where is the "systematic meeting of human demands".

Quote:

But when I look around I only see "artificial generation of demands mankind would not have otherwise" - and that's pervers in my opinion, too.

You are just describing the power of marketing: interestingly, resisting it requires the same kind of effort I was writing about earlier. But see how most people enjoy falling in the trap again and again: it is easier to have superficial thinking and passive activity. Unfortunately brain is not like battery: the more you use it the more it gives.

Quote:

You mean we should proceed as before and not worry?

I have exposed my ideas and opinions about energy (particularly oil but resource/population in general) many time before (the last proponent [search for HenryCase] left the discussion half way). I see no need to develop again. My Quote:

Meanwhile we have all the oil we need until the next best thing becomes technologically feasible and commercially viable ;

is a good résumé of my position.

Bye,
TMTisFree

_________________
The engineering approach to our non-problems: "build a better washer".
The scientific approach to our non-problems: "find a new energy source".
The environmentalist approach to our non-problems: "stop washing your shirts".

@TMTisFree

For those following the climate science, the new paper from Dr Lindzen about sensitivity in the climate system, which first results were previewed in a previous thread, is out and available free here. The abstract is: Quote:

Climate feedbacks are estimated from fluctuations in the outgoing radiation budget from the latest version of Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) nonscanner data. It appears, for the entire tropics, the observed outgoing radiation fluxes increase with the increase in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The observed behavior of radiation fluxes implies negative feedback processes associated with relatively low climate sensitivity. This is the opposite of the behavior of 11 atmospheric models forced by the same SSTs. Therefore, the models display much higher climate sensitivity than is inferred from ERBE, though it is difficult to pin down such high sensitivities with any precision. Results also show, the feedback in ERBE is mostly from shortwave radiation while the feedback in the models is mostly from longwave radiation. Although such a test does not distinguish the mechanisms, this is important since the inconsistency of climate feedbacks constitutes a very fundamental problem in climate prediction.

Bye,
TMTisFree

_________________
The engineering approach to our non-problems: "build a better washer".
The scientific approach to our non-problems: "find a new energy source".
The environmentalist approach to our non-problems: "stop washing your shirts".

@TMTisFree

Greenland Icesheet

I downloaded the pdf of the article refered to. I agree it is interesting in itself and well written. At the end are various references given, the first few being noted as representative of the views of glaciologists the author is taking exception to. Naturally I decided to search these papers to see if he was fairly representing them. I thought it unlikely because of the many other studies I have looked into to which his criticisms do not apply.

I am unable to find a free copy of this paper which by the title and its place in the references is his main target:

Christoffersen, P. & Hambrey, M.J. 2006.
Is the Greenland Ice Sheet in a state of collapse?
Geology Today, v.22, pp. 98-103.

http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/118621650/abstract

The abstract is too brief but I doubt from my reading that paper would have reached the conclusion implied in the title, no one else has. I believe I have discovered what glaciologists mean when they express concern about possible future collapse, but as the word "collapse" is in the title of the C&H paper I would expect some definition of what they mean. Certainly the view assumed in the letter you cited does not apply to what I have discovered.

Do you have a copy of the paper cited above?

Noel

@TMTisFree

Quote:

TMTisFree wrote: @Dandy Quote: But I do consider e.g. the advertising slogan of a German chain saw manufacturer "Stiehl - advancement in the forest" as pervers. Why?

I'd like to answer this with Albert Einstein's word(s):
Think!

Quote:

TMTisFree wrote: Quote: But when I look around I only see "artificial generation of demands mankind would not have otherwise" - and that's pervers in my opinion, too. ...interestingly, resisting it requires the same kind of effort I was writing about earlier.

Not sure what you're referring to here...


Quote:

TMTisFree wrote: But see how most people enjoy falling in the trap again and again: it is easier to have superficial thinking and passive activity.

Yeah - but to me it seems that by claiming Meanwhile we have all the oil we need until the next best thing becomes technologically feasible and commercially viable
you fall in this trap as well.
What guaratee do you have that the next best thing becomes technologically feasible in time at all?

Quote:

TMTisFree wrote: Unfortunately brain is not like battery: the more you use it the more it gives.

Unfortunately?
I think this is meant ironic - anyway I'm quite happy with that...

Quote:

TMTisFree wrote: Quote: You mean we should proceed as before and not worry? I have exposed my ideas and opinions about energy (particularly oil but resource/population in general) many time before (the last proponent [search for HenryCase] left the discussion half way). I see no need to develop again. My Quote: Meanwhile we have all the oil we need until the next best thing becomes technologically feasible and commercially viable ; is a good résumé of my position. Bye, TMTisFree

I think this is a quite dangerous position, as it possibly puts us all on risk.
Don't forget Murphy's law: "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong."...

_________________
Ciao

Dandy
__________________________________________
If someone enjoys marching to military music, then I already despise him.
He got his brain accidently - the bone marrow in his back would have been sufficient for him!
(Albert Einstein)

@TMTisFree

Quote:

TMTisFree wrote: @TMTisFree For those following the climate science, the new paper from Dr Lindzen about sensitivity in the climate system, which first results were previewed in a previous thread, is out and available free here. The abstract is: ...

I read the paper you linked and there were a few points that made me think:

1) Quote:

on page 2 I found: ... 7 To see what one particular difficulty is, consider the following conceptual situation: We 8 instantaneously double CO2. This will cause the characteristic emission level to rise to a colder level 9 with an associated diminution of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). ...

From this I take less radiation is emitted from the atmosphere to space, if CO2 is instantaneously doubled [EDIT]- so even a paper linked by YOU supports the view that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

2) Quote:

on page 2 I found: ... 13 ... These feedbacks arise from the dependence of radiatively 14 important substances like water vapor (which is a powerful greenhouse gas) and clouds (which are 15 important for both infrared and visible radiation) on the temperature. ...

The authors of the paper you linked use the terms "water vapor" and "gas".
From this I take that your claim that (liquid) water is a component of the atmosphere is rebutted.

3) Quote:

on page 3 I found: ... 2 ... A subsequent correction to the satellite data 3 eliminated much of the decadal variation in the radiative balance [Wong et al., 2006]. ...

Hmmmmm - didn't you say something along the lines that you refuse to accept "manipulated data"?
"subsequent correction to the satellite data" sonds to me like manipulation...

Last edited by Dandy on 02-Sep-2009 at 12:32 PM.

_________________
Ciao

Dandy
__________________________________________
If someone enjoys marching to military music, then I already despise him.
He got his brain accidently - the bone marrow in his back would have been sufficient for him!
(Albert Einstein)

@Dandy

Quote:

Nitrous oxide has now been recognised by scientists to be a massive green house gas and ozon layer killer.

Why should this surprise you? Sound science went out the window some time ago. The political views now make/pay for the reports.

Last edited by Interesting on 09-Sep-2009 at 02:00 AM.

_________________
"The system no longer works " -- Young Anakin Skywalker

@TMTisFree

Quote:

Pointing out numerous and repetitive alarmist failures is nevertheless a good exercise to deconstruct myth and underlying ideological strategy.

well said !

Remember that the actions taken because of the ideology has consequences!!!

As hybrid cars gobble rare metals, shortage looms

Action electic cars are cleaner. Consequence rape of the land to build them.
Quote:

Among the rare earths that would be most affected in a shortage is neodymium, the key component of an alloy used to make he high-power, lightweight magnets for electric motors of hybrid cars, such as the Prius, Honda Insight and Ford Fusion, as well as in generators for wind turbines Close cousins terbium and dysprosium are added in smaller amounts to the alloy to preserve neodymium's magnetic properties at high temperatures. Yet another rare earth metal, lanthanum, is a major ingredient for hybrid car batteries.

Each electric Prius motor requires 1 kilogram (2.2 lb) of neodymium, and each battery uses 10 to 15 kg (22-33 lb) of lanthanum. That number will nearly double under Toyota's plans to boost the car's fuel economy, he said.

Link to the rest of the sad story

Last edited by Interesting on 09-Sep-2009 at 02:01 AM.

_________________
"The system no longer works " -- Young Anakin Skywalker

Early spring in New Zealand - a weather report

This last month of August in New Zealand is the warmest on record (since 1860) with a mean temperature of 10.7 degrees, 1.7 degrees above normal - an el nina (warm phase of ENSO) spring has come a month early as did the cool la nina winter. Normally August would be regarded as one of the more miserable winter months. Instead it has been relatively pleasant.

Summer I expect to be hot for us, and humid, surrounded by nearby ocean water as we are. Last February if I remember correctly we had in Auckland the hottest day on record at 34°C which may seem cool to some reading this thread. In fact it was to me a rather pleasant day because of unusual low humidity. The same temperature with the more usual high humidity would be a crippling experience.

However, when I see much higher temperatures over much of the continental parts of this planet, I wonder how we will fare with climate refugees in future? NZ and particularly Auckland has always been a destination for refugees, from wars, persecution, and economic fears. We are already getting climate refugees. At this point some I've heard of are well heeled, buy a rural block, build a marvelous house setting out to climate proof the place, using all the science and ecological knowhow they can lay their hands on to achieve carbon neutrality and sustainability while continuing to maintain high profit businesses overseas.

I note the citrus trees are loaded this year, and the fijoa and guava trees were heavily loaded just before the early winter set in. The previous year the fruit trees had little or no fruit, the same with the neighbours. With an early spring, vegetation may be out of sync with pollinators so I will be interested in how the trees bear next year.

When wind and traffic are low I enjoy the delicious scent of the jonquils on my walks, bless the people who plant them all through their front gardens, while harbouring darker thoughts concerning the ignorant lawn mowing man who, without consultation, destroyed with weedkiller our bed of freesia alba during their leaf phase, and also a bed of puha or sow thistle, usually regarded as a weed, but in fact a highly nutritious if slightly bitter food plant. My brother was using puha for bird food. He wondered why the birds sickened until I noticed the effects of the herbicide - exit lawn mower man - I need the exercise anyway!

Noel

@Interesting

Fortunately lithium batteries are recyclable and supposedly non-toxic, while electric motors can be very durable compared to high performance petrol and diesel motors. Given the relative rarity and expense of lithium I keep a hopful eye on the development of equivalent super capacitors. The US military have taken a fancy to thehigh voltage EEstor and ZENN motor company continue to invest in it but a commercial product is still to be seen. I had hopes of a low voltage carbon nanotube super capacitor being developed by MIT but have heard no news of this for a while.

Noel

@NoelFuller

Quote:

Do you have a copy of the paper cited above?

Here (PDF).

Bye,
TMTisFree

_________________
The engineering approach to our non-problems: "build a better washer".
The scientific approach to our non-problems: "find a new energy source".
The environmentalist approach to our non-problems: "stop washing your shirts".

@Dandy

Quote:

What guaratee do you have that the next best thing becomes technologically feasible in time at all?

There is no guarantee of anything in this world. But do consider the history...and think! No one can deny wood/coal/whatever is just inert material if not used by human knowledge: a resource then exists as such only because human chooses it to be so (it is really that simple).

Quote:

I think this is a quite dangerous position, as it possibly puts us all on risk.

As also discussed in previous threads, cheap, reliable, non dangerous and almost infinite solutions for energy exist since long. Politics have withdrawn them for political reasons (whatever that means): the question is why.

Quote:

Don't forget Murphy's law: "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong."...

Remember Murphy's law also applies to itself...

Bye,
TMTisFree

_________________
The engineering approach to our non-problems: "build a better washer".
The scientific approach to our non-problems: "find a new energy source".
The environmentalist approach to our non-problems: "stop washing your shirts".

@Dandy

Quote:

From this I take less radiation is emitted from the atmosphere to space, if CO2 is instantaneously doubled [EDIT]- so even a paper linked by YOU supports the view that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.

Well, when I link to one of the IPCC's reports, they also support this view. When I link to some other papers, they appear to not support it. So what exactly? And what do you not understand with 'conceptual situation'? Defining clearly an hypothesis is a requirement before falsifying it. Pr Lindzen is just doing that properly here.

Quote:

From this I take that your claim that (liquid) water is a component of the atmosphere is rebutted.

Not at all, the context was different: I did not care about the state(s) of water because my comment was a general one ("water is a component of atmosphere" because water is present in atmosphere under all its states: that seems not that difficult to acknowledge).

Quote:

Hmmmmm - didn't you say something along the lines that you refuse to accept "manipulated data"? "subsequent correction to the satellite data" sonds to me like manipulation...

You say it. Funnily, the "manipulated data" were done by an alarmist team (Wong et al., 2006) to reduce the ditch between real world data (ERBE) and IPCC models' assumptions. But ERBE data are resistant enough to still show a low sensitivity despite the 'manipulation'...

Edit: reworded the 1st sentence

Bye,
TMTisFree

Last edited by TMTisFree on 03-Sep-2009 at 07:25 AM.

_________________
The engineering approach to our non-problems: "build a better washer".
The scientific approach to our non-problems: "find a new energy source".
The environmentalist approach to our non-problems: "stop washing your shirts".

@TMTisFree

Quote:

Do you have a copy of the paper cited above? Here (PDF).

I tried, thanks but there is a problem. solved: it's OWB

I Cannot read the downloaded file - AmiPDF complains it can't build xref table. I tried another similarly named file from the same source with the same result so probably not a problem with the file. I had the same problem with the original link you gave for this:
OllierPaine-NoIceSheetCollapse-AIGNewsAug.2009.pdf
This one worked from another site. The problem appears to be in the very long names with all those disconnected spaces. Renaming before download does not work so it may be OWB. If I download and then try to rename I get an object not found notice from diropus. If I rename from a shell the renaming succeeds but pdf will still not load. . . .

I then tried from IBrowse, renamed before downloading and succeeded.

Noel

@Interesting

Quote:

Interesting wrote: @TMTisFree Quote: Pointing out numerous and repetitive alarmist failures is nevertheless a good exercise to deconstruct myth and underlying ideological strategy. well said ! Remember that the actions taken because of the ideology have consequences!!! As hybrid cars gobble rare metals, shortage looms

Now that's what I call hypocrite!
You are afraid of a shortage of rare metals, but are not afraid e.g. of a shortage of food, if more and more cultivable land is swallowed by producing BioFuel?
Shame on you...

Quote:

Interesting wrote: Action electic cars are cleaner.

Electric cars are just as clean as the power station that produces the electricity to charge them.

Quote:

Interesting wrote: Consequence rape of the land to build them.

That's hypocrite as well!
You are afraid of the land being raped to build electric or hybrid cars - but don't mind the land being raped for "standard" car production, oil production etc.pp.

Quote:

Interesting wrote: Among the rare earths that would be most affected in a shortage is neodymium, the key component of an alloy used to make he high-power, lightweight magnets for electric motors of hybrid cars, such as the Prius, Honda Insight and Ford Fusion, as well as in generators for wind turbines Close cousins terbium and dysprosium are added in smaller amounts to the alloy to preserve neodymium's magnetic properties at high temperatures. Yet another rare earth metal, lanthanum, is a major ingredient for hybrid car batteries. Quote: Each electric Prius motor requires 1 kilogram (2.2 lb) of neodymium, and each battery uses 10 to 15 kg (22-33 lb) of lanthanum. That number will nearly double under Toyota's plans to boost the car's fuel economy, he said. ...

Also hypocrite!
You are afraid of a shortage of rare earths, but don't mind the one, unique earth we're all living and depending on being destroyed by the mass application of dirty technologies.


EDIT:
Fixed quoting...

Last edited by Dandy on 03-Sep-2009 at 11:14 AM.
Last edited by Dandy on 03-Sep-2009 at 11:11 AM.

_________________
Ciao

Dandy
__________________________________________
If someone enjoys marching to military music, then I already despise him.
He got his brain accidently - the bone marrow in his back would have been sufficient for him!
(Albert Einstein)

@Interesting

Quote:

Interesting wrote: @Dandy Quote: Nitrous oxide has now been recognised by scientists to be a massive green house gas and ozon layer killer. ... Sound science went out the window, and the political views now make the reports.

As everybody can see from your unrefined statements...

_________________
Ciao

Dandy
__________________________________________
If someone enjoys marching to military music, then I already despise him.
He got his brain accidently - the bone marrow in his back would have been sufficient for him!
(Albert Einstein)

Polar ICE matters from NASA

These features were posted by NASA on 1st September 2009

Arctic Sea Ice thickness record has been extended back to 1958 through declassified submarine readings. Thickness peaked in 1980, average 3.64 metres, diminishing by 53% to 1.89 metres in late 2007. Loss of multi-year ice is a chief part of the reduction.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/seaice_skinny.html

There are hundreds of lakes under the ice of Antarctica. Many are inactive. Those that are active are near the coast at the heads of various sub glacial drainage systems. Squeezed by pressure some lakes rapidly drain while they fill other lakes nearby or in some cases hundreds of miles away. They appear to be associated with moving ice streams, also called glaciers. Some lakes fill and drain on a regular cycle, over several years.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/active_lakes.html

Antarctic sea ice has expanded about 1% in the 30 years this has been monitored, the Ross sea being a principle area of expansion. Three theories help explain this:

(1) Depleted ozone has resulted in strengthening of the already fierce polar vortex, tending to drive ice offshore. This opens up clear areas inshore where ice is rapidly formed and exported. The effect is strongest over the Ross Sea.

(2) Stratification of sea water with colder fresher water on top from increased rain and snow can drive further ice formation. Heat from warmer saline water below is prevented from convecting to the surface as happens in the arctic. This freshening has been modelled and has been recorded in two areas to date, including the Ross Sea.

(3) Flooding of snow burdened, low riding sea ice by waves, can turn snow to ice, increasing the overall thickness. Some researchers believe this phenomenon may also affect sea ice extent over a season but the effect has yet to be demonstrated.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/antarctic_melting.html

Noel