@MikeB

First point, that's already been linked to, we are in fact moving towards the end of a discussion about it right now. Summary - nothing special, and if you think 80,000km is good, look back to Comet Holmes in 2007, whose rarefied external coma was briefly larger than the sun.

Second point, what's the distance between Comet Elenin and a 6km asteroid got to do with the price of chips?

And thirdly, a question - why do you capitalise the first three letters of 'Elenin'?

@Nimrod

Quote:

Please stop regurgitating the same old scare story that "they" don't want me to know, with the claim that this time it's real. It wasn't before. It isn't now. It won't be next time.

You could stop replying. Why try so hard to convince someone? Not gonna happen.
If we don't get a polarity shift in September, I've lost nothing.

Already airports have had to adjust "North" by 10 degrees...

@Lou

I don't need to convince anybody.
My proof will come simply by me being still alive in Jan 2012. And then Jan 2013.

@zerohero
Does this Amiga related link get us back on to the front page?

_________________
When in trouble, fear or doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.

@T-J
Quote:

Summary - nothing special, and if you think 80,000km is good, look back to Comet Holmes in 2007, whose rarefied external coma was briefly larger than the sun.

Look back to the Great Comet of 1843 the tail was over 2AU in length. That's right. Take the distance between the earth and the sun and double it! WOW! I wish I was here to see that.


@Lou
Quote:

If we don't get a polarity shift in September, I've lost nothing. Already airports have had to adjust "North" by 10 degrees...

Magnetic poles continually shift on earth. This has been known for quite a long time. While an exposure from a brown dwarf or a 2nd sun may well influence such an event the event does occur without those items.

For example - Tampa, I believe, shut down for a little bit for such as an event. It's not a coincidence that this came on the heels of the FAA doing their 5 year adjustment to account for an ever changing magnetic field.

Geomagentic pole shift has little to no impact, even if they flipped. (Yeah some animals that use the magnetic field will get confused.) The real impact would come shout there be a major change of our axis. Even the axis gets minor shifts all the time. Fukushima just shifted the axis and made our day about 2x10^-6 seconds shorter.

Last edited by BrianK on 14-Apr-2011 at 04:31 PM.

@T-J

Quote:

Summary - nothing special, and if you think 80,000km is good, look back to Comet Holmes in 2007, whose rarefied external coma was briefly larger than the sun.

You forgot to mention how much this shocked scientists and astronomers. Suddenly expanding 236 times in size.

What if this happened to ELEnin? 80,000 km * 236 = 1.9 million km. A similar explosion could make this significantly larger than the sun and elenin is expected to come as 5 times closer to the earth than the sun is.

Thinks about it. At least we are ensured to great fireworks due to probably passing through its tail according to NASA (if its orbit is correct) in a best case scenario. Which is actually pretty amazing, especially considering the timing.

@Lou

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You don't know how much light bends when it's so close to another star because the nearest 2 stars observed are light years away. Being in close promitiy changes the math as gravitational pull is related to distance hence you'll see a greater effect especially when the 3 points (observation point, and the 2 light sources) are so close to a straight line alignment. One thing that is observed in the legit videos is the red shift. Your "sun dogs" do not have that.

Distance does not matter as the gravimetric pull is on the photons themselves and not the object emiting them.

Doesn't matter wether the light had traveled 1000000 lightyears or just 100m, all that matters the angle it has before entering a gravimetric field and the strenght of it.

Oh and a "blown-up" comet does blow all the arguments about the object having any effect on earth out of the water (unless it makes direct impact offcourse) and such an object could in no way have habitable planets/moon (you know where those ETs are supposed to life). Not that that would have worked with a companion sun if it had such an eccecntric orbit anyway (would have lost all planets the 1st it had passed the sun, probraly even knocking Mercury out of orbit billions of years ago).

So yeah still just:

a) people "see" things they don't understand
b) self proclaimed scientiest writing books about it to scam money out of
c) people who believe any BS as long as it's told in clever word

_________________
- We don't need good ideas, we haven't run out on bad ones yet
- blame Canada

@T-J

Read my above posting and note comet Holmes exploded at its position it was nearest to earth at two times the distance from earth to the sun (it became a nake-eye visitble explosion). This "comet" ELEnin is bigger and passes us by 1/5 sun-earth distance!

@T-J

After the Sun and Moon, Venus is always the brightest body in the sky. Venus is between 38 million km and 261 km from the earth. Comet elenin will come closer to the earth than Venus ever gets.

ELEnin is at least 6.6 times as big as Venus according to Spaceobs.

@MikeB

The apparent expansion of Comet Holmes in 2007 was due to an outburst, not an explosion. The comet still exists, and is expected back in 2014, if I remember correctly.

Elenin probably won't have an outburst when it reaches its closest point to the Earth. The outburst of Holmes was due either to a collision with a smaller meteoroid, or an 'eruption' due to buildup of gases in the nucleus. It is impossible to say whether Elenin will do the same, but generally speaking comets don't have outbursts just because they've reached their closest point to the Earth. That's why observers were surprised when Holmes did.

Quote:

After the Sun and Moon, Venus is always the brightest body in the sky. Venus is between 38 million km and 261 km from the earth. Comet elenin will come closer to the earth than Venus ever gets. ELEnin is at least 6.6 times as big as Venus according to Spaceobs.

Venus is not always the brightest body in the sky after the sun and moon. Setting aside supernovae, stars that outshine it when its across the sun from us and such for a moment, smaller objects can outshine it by being much closer than it to us. If Comet Elenin outshines Venus, it'll be because it will be so much closer to us, not because it is bigger.

Only Elenin's coma (tenuous gaseous 'atmosphere') is very large. You say 6.6 times as big as Venus. That would be more accurately said as '6.6 times as wide as Venus'. The mass of the comet remains very small, and the hard nucleus of Elenin will remain 15km across.

Also, I asked you earlier about why you capitalise the first three letters of 'Elenin'. I note you're still doing it, so its probably not a typo.

Last edited by T-J on 14-Apr-2011 at 08:55 PM.

@MikeB

Quote:

MikeB wrote: @T-J After the Sun and Moon, Venus is always the brightest body in the sky. Venus is between 38 million km and 261 km from the earth. Comet elenin will come closer to the earth than Venus ever gets. ELEnin is at least 6.6 times as big as Venus according to Spaceobs.

I don't believe that is correct. Venus is ~12K km in diameter. That would make the diameter of Elenin about 80K km. However, we know that's not the case as the tail makes up the majority of this size. Best estimates put Elenin's diameter at 5K km or roughly 40% the size of Venus.

And here you're only talking in terms of size not in terms of mass. Gravity is effected by mass and distance, not size. Venus is 80% of earth. Certainly Elenin is not equivalent to 5 earth masses. It's lighter than Halley's comet.

In March of this year Elenin was about 270M km away from earth. Let's assume the mass is the same as the heavier Halley's Comet. At this distance and with this mass the mass of the people living in Japan had a larger gravitational impact on Fukushima than Elenin.

@T-J

Extinction Level Event.

@ BrianK

We know the comet's tail was already at least 900,000 km one month ago. Assuming this is a comet, both its coma and tail will get significantly bigger as it draws closer to the sun.

Even with these figures (which according to conspiracy theorists are wrong) this is frontpage level news. But with all these wars and disasters there's nearly no media attention!

@MikeB

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We know the comet's tail was already at least 900,000 km one month ago. Assuming this is a comet, both its coma and tail will get significantly bigger as it draws closer to the sun

As you well know it's not the size that counts. It's mass. It's mass and distance that relate to any gravitational pull on the earth. Go back to the Great Comet of 1934 and it had a tail that was 2AU. An AU is the distance from earth to the sun, ~150Million km. 900K is nothing compared to 300,000K. The Great Comet had 0 impact on earth. Well except for oohs and ahhs as people could see the Comet for a couple of weeks and during the day.

The current trajectory takes Elenin about 340,000K km from earth. Distance from earth to moon is 384k km. The mass of Halley (heavier than Elenin) is 2.2x10^14kg. The moon's mass is 7.4x10^22kg. So we have a mass that's tiny compared to the moon at 100x the distance. Here's the forumla you need F= Gm1m2/d^2. I'll leave it as an excerise for the readers to put that together and tell us the ratio is of gravity between the moon/earth and Elenin/earth. (Earth is 6x10^24kg.. though not needed to answer the question.)

This is front page news as it may be pretty to look at and only a few times during one's life will they get a chance to see something of this nature. So they may want to run out and by some binoculars. I'd recommend August so people have a couple of weeks before the Sept visit to buy a pair. As Flavor Flav says.. 'Don't believe the hype'.

Last edited by BrianK on 14-Apr-2011 at 10:57 PM.

@MikeB
At the risk of sounding like a heretic, I must ask the following dangerous question. Has the possibility ever occurred to you that the conspiracy theorists may be wrong!!!!!

Before the conspiracy theorists found out about Elenin, and turned it into a brown dwarf, estimates of the size of the nucleus varied between 4 and 8 km. This nucleus is the source of all material in the tail of the comet. (more correctly called the coma). The bigger the tail, the more diffuse it becomes as mass cannot just pop into existence. By the time we pass through the tail of Elenin it will be like riding through a fog bank on a bicycle.

We will not be bombarded by house sized lumps of rock.
The sun will not stand still in the sky.
Continents will fail to go careering off into he distance, ricocheting off each other like dodgem cars.
The human race will not noticeably become extinct, and if any other species does it will probably be because some human shot the last one. For fun.

_________________
When in trouble, fear or doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.

@MikeB

Quote:

Extinction Level Event

Too bad I was too young to fully admire the "Hecatomb-Armageddon Level" of comet HALley back in 1986... On the other hand - I could clearly see another comet of this "level" in 1997 (HALe-Bopp). Yet, once again missed the fireworks

@recedent

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Yet, once again missed the fireworks

Don't worry, this will certainly be your best chance yet.

@MikeB

Hmm... You seem very convinced. Would you like to bet for a humble 100 PLN? Say, if we'll make it to 01.01.2012 - you loose. If we don't - well... I guess you'll have your satisfaction .

@Nimrod

Quote:

Has the possibility ever occurred to you that the conspiracy theorists may be wrong!!!!!

The SpaceObs.org website is Leonid Elenin's personal website, the alledged amateur astronomer from Russia who discovered this comet using a huge International Scientific Optical Network telescope located in New Mexico.

I just used the data posted there. If I go by the conspiracy theorist information the NASA buzzroom and Nasa's Elenin tracking was taken down because newly posted information revealed the comet will pass earth as close as a mere 40,000 km distance. Considering its size according to SpaceObs that's an amazingly near passage.

If one would also assume the mass to be enormous (as for being Nibiru instead of a "normal" comet) effects on the earth's magnetic poles would be pretty much guaranteed and potentially extremely catastrophic.

But in any case we can look forward to some amazing firework display in a best case scenario.

Last edited by MikeB on 15-Apr-2011 at 12:49 PM.
Last edited by MikeB on 15-Apr-2011 at 12:33 PM.

@MikeB

Quote:

If I go by the conspiracy theorist information the NASA buzzroom and Nasa's Elenin tracking was taken down because newly posted information revealed the comet will pass earth as close as a mere 40,000 km distance. Considering its size according to SpaceObs that's an amazingly near passage

One just can't accept any thrown out idea without backing. Certainly NASA couldn't cover up an object that would pass within 40K km. There are other nations around the world and they too would want to claim the prize of a correct prediction and beat NASA. So, it's not like NASA is the final or only say.

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If one would also assume the mass to be enormous

But why assume anything? Why not find out? We know how mass bend light and certainly Elenin will pass by stars and we can measure the bend.

Let's go ahead and take the 'it's a brown dwarf'. Now that might be impressive for size as the smallest objects mass that is classified as a brown dwarf is 8x Jupiter. Of course this can go many, many times larger than that. However, let's back to some fairly simple question. It's been asserted that this brown dwarf exerted enough gravitational force to move the earth's crust under Fukushima. Again if this is true why did the smaller and lighter satellites we have in orbit not see any impacts? And certainly the moon moves tides but not crust so this item that has more gravitational force moves crust but not the lighter tides? And the moon is lighter but no impact? Elenin being a brown dwarf that's already impacting our planet simply fails in too many ways to be true.

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But in any case we can look forward to some amazing firework display in a best case scenario

Not so amazingly the mass and trajectory of this object makes the actual case some fireworks which will be seen by binoculars.

Last edited by BrianK on 15-Apr-2011 at 02:34 PM.

@MikeB

Quote:

If one would also assume the mass to be enormous

Conversely, if one were to assume (with as much justification) that the nucleus of Elenin ( the comet not the astronomer) were made of overripe camembert, the smell when it made its closest earth approach would be terrible.

If you are expecting an extinction level event, don't hold your breath. If my new theory is correct, hold your nose instead.

_________________
When in trouble, fear or doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.

@Nimrod

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If you are expecting an extinction level event, don't hold your breath.

If all who believe in the Elenin conspiracy crap stopped breathing would we consider that an Elenin caused extinction level event?