@jtsiren

Quote:

Refreshing change, even if not necessarily for me. The other two will duke it out for the next place.

Two companies or products? With regard to product don't discount the PS2 just yet, for every month since the XBox 360's release the PS2 has greatly outsold the XBox 360 globally. The PS2 is currently really the entry product for Playstation consumers, but especially for consumers with expensive HDTVs the PS3 seems to be the better choice (PS2 games upscaled, Blu-Ray movies, more complex 720p/1080p native PS3 games).

Last edited by MikeB on 06-Jul-2007 at 12:54 PM.

@MikeB

Quote:

It's hard to imagine how much these expectations are worth though, Bill Gates announced the XBox 360 would have a 10 million sales lead over the PS3 and Wii before they even started shipping. Of course that was very far from the truth.

It is obvious Wii will win the next few years, if not even all of this generation - barring anything unexpected. Nintendo came back with a bang and I respect them for it, by far the cleanest and fairest play in a long time too. Refreshing change, even if not necessarily for me. The other two will duke it out for the next place.

Only time will tell how relevant "total sales" will be as this generation's war may come to an uncharasterically sudden end if Wii is replaced with an HD alternative sooner than the others are replaced and if Microsoft sticks to the rumoured much faster upgrade pace than Sony will (say, Xbox III coming out two years before Sony's response and a new Nintendo machine even before Xbox III)... It would be interesting to see how that would play out if Sony plans to stick to more conventional schedule.

But that is of course way off-topic and totally irrelevant, just speculating and thinking out loud.

Last edited by jtsiren on 06-Jul-2007 at 12:44 PM.
Last edited by jtsiren on 06-Jul-2007 at 12:43 PM.
Last edited by jtsiren on 06-Jul-2007 at 12:43 PM.

@Lou

Mercury News:

Quote:

All told, the company plans to take a charge of $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion in its just-completed quarter to cover the costs of repairing or replacing defective Xbox 360s. That amount represents about $100 - or about a quarter of the total retail cost - for every Xbox 360 Microsoft has shipped to date, noted Michael Pachter, a financial analyst with Wedbush Morgan Securities in Los Angeles. In recent months, Microsoft officials had denied any widespread problems with the Xbox 360. But many users clearly weren't having such a wonderful time. In fact, some had reported having returned multiple failed consoles to Microsoft. Rob and Mindy Cassingham of Moab, Utah, for instance, are about to return their eighth defective Xbox 360 console. "Their honesty is definitely tarnished," said Rob Cassingham. The repair problems come as Microsoft is in a heated battle with Nintendo and Sony in the latest round of the game-console wars. Although the Xbox 360 is the leading console in terms of units sold, Nintendo's Wii has been quickly closing the gap, far outselling the Xbox 360 in the United States and in Japan in recent months. Sales of the Xbox 360 are falling short of Microsoft's estimates. The company initially expected to ship 13 million to 15 million by the end of June, then lowered that to 12 million. But company officials admitted Thursday that they wouldn't make their lowered target, saying Microsoft had shipped just 11.6 million Xbox 360s by the end of June. Despite the repair problems, the company expects to meet its goal of posting a profit on its game business in its new fiscal year, which started this month. If so, that would be the first ever for Microsoft since it got into the game business with the release of the original Xbox in 2001.

It's hard to imagine how much these expectations are worth though, Bill Gates announced the XBox 360 would have a 10 million sales lead over the PS3 and Wii before they even started shipping. Of course that was very far from the truth.

Here is someone saying latest Elites are now shipping with the new heatsink:

http://www.weplayxbox.com/2007/06/20/feeling-cool-how-to-tell-if-your-repaired-xbox-360-has-the-new-additional-heatsink/

No way of knowing if he is right and again, the most important question, if those added heatsinks are helping any.

@MikeB

OK, obviously Gamespot was confused if that is correct. I doubt this is relevant-enough of an issue to dig any deeper so I'll take your word for it. (Logical as it would match with the guestimates of how many machines have been sold as well.)

@Lou

Quote:

When do they think their Xbox division will be profitable now?

This was quoted above, they still feel by end of the fiscal starting 1 July 2007.

I'd reward Microsoft for doing the right thing by buying an Xbox 360 game (many tempting out there) but I have too many already waiting to be played... I do think this was doing the right thing even though it was also doing something they really had to do IMHO - some companies would have just waited for the lawsuit and dealt with that, console history certainly has recorded these.

Last edited by jtsiren on 06-Jul-2007 at 12:10 PM.
Last edited by jtsiren on 06-Jul-2007 at 12:06 PM.
Last edited by jtsiren on 06-Jul-2007 at 12:06 PM.

So with this latest warranty news...

When do they think their Xbox division will be profitable now?

@jtsiren

10.4 million and 11.6 million figures are cumulative.

Quarter Units Shipped
Q4 2005 1.5 million units
Q1 2006 1.7 million units
Q2 2006 1.8 million units
Q3 2006 0.9 million units
Q4 2006 4.4 million units
Q1 2007 0.5 million units

"EDD revenue decreased during the three months ended March 31, 2007 primarily because of decreased Xbox 360 console sales. During the quarter, we shipped 0.5 million Xbox 360 consoles as compared to 1.7 million consoles in the third quarter of fiscal year 2006, which was the first full quarter of Xbox 360 console sales."

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312507091808/d10q.htm

Cumulative Estimate:
Q2 2007 11.6 million units

So,
Q2 2007 0.8 million units (which includes the XBox 360 Elite launch)

Last edited by MikeB on 06-Jul-2007 at 11:56 AM.
Last edited by MikeB on 06-Jul-2007 at 11:53 AM.

@MikeB

Quote:

Yes, 10.4 million shipped announced the first week of January 2007. 11.6 million shipped on 30th of June 2007. End user sales currently around 10.1 million worldwide.

Somebody is confused now, it could be Gamespot of course:

Quote:

According to Liddell, over 11.6 million 360s were shipped worldwide during the 12-month period, which includes the four and a half months when the 360 was the sole next-generation console on the US market.

...ending June 30, 2007.

That wouldn't support your conclusion that only 1.6 million were sold H1/2007 (H1 = first half)? Or are you saying Microsoft announced January that they had shipped the roughly 10 million in the previous six months alone (H2/2006)?

If 11.6 million 360s were shipped H2/2006-H1/2007 then add to that whatever was shipped H2/2005-H1/2006 and we have total shipped since beginning.

Frankly, though, I am not surprised Microsoft is having tougher time this last half a year. They now have competition on the market and who knew about the Wii factor... wow, what a factor that has been. (Off-topic personal note: The Wii has tempted me SO often. I actually a little while back actually purchased one but took it back unopened because I changed my mind... It is really tempting, but I'm afraid the SD graphics wouldn't hold me too long.)

Edit: Fixed year-half markings.

Last edited by jtsiren on 06-Jul-2007 at 10:36 AM.
Last edited by jtsiren on 06-Jul-2007 at 10:36 AM.

@jtsiren

Yes, 10.4 million shipped announced the first week of January 2007. 11.6 million shipped on 30th of June 2007. End user sales currently around 10.1 million worldwide.

@MikeB

I don't know. I am just saying that I understood the 11.6 million to be for the year ending June 30. That would also concur with the timing that it was announced now, why announce calendar 2006 numbers now?

If I understand you correctly you say they shipped 10 million in calendar 2006 (Q1-Q2/2006) and 1.6 million in Q1/2007? But fiscal 2006-2007 would have been Q2/2006-Q1/2007 for which 11.6 million was shipped.

I'm just trying to understand the numbers?

@jtsiren

Quote:

This math wouldn't seem right - wasn't that 12 million shipped for the year ending June 30? Or am I wrong?

May 9, 2006 "Microsoft Corp. Chairman and Chief Software Architect Bill Gates today staked the claim that the Xbox 360™ system will have a 10 million-unit head start by the time the competition enters the market and more than 160 games by the end of the year."

August 2006 "By the end of its fiscal 2007 in June, Microsoft anticipates between 13-15 million consoles shipped worldwide. "

8 January 2007: "As part of Bill Gates's keynote address at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Robbie Bach joined his boss on stage to reveal that Microsoft has managed to shift 10.4 million units of the Xbox 360 console."

- The XBox 360 went on sale in March 2007. Sales were dwarfed by XBox 360 core and premium sales. According to sales data total XBox 360 sales to consumers have just hit 10.1 million.

Your analys based on this information if you compare this with current data?

Last edited by MikeB on 06-Jul-2007 at 09:54 AM.
Last edited by MikeB on 06-Jul-2007 at 09:41 AM.

@MikeB

Acknowledged.

Quote:

For 2006 Microsoft announced the company had shipped more than 10 million XBox 360s. So at the most they shipped 1.6 million XBox 360 in a half year timespan. XBox 360 shipments have never been this low before, still the XBox 360 is plenty in stock and sales are decreasing below expecatations.

This math wouldn't seem right - wasn't that 12 million shipped for the year ending June 30? Or am I wrong?

@jtsiren

To put the numbers into perspective, the shipment target was 16 million, Microsoft later downgraded that to 13-15 and then downgraded it to 12 million. They missed even this shipment target by 400K.

For 2006 Microsoft announced the company had shipped more than 10 million XBox 360s. So at the most they shipped 1.6 million XBox 360 in a half year timespan. XBox 360 shipments have never been this low before, still the XBox 360 is plenty in stock and sales are decreasing below expectations.

Quote:

Interesting to see how these warranty news will affect future sales.

The news is both positive and negative. XBox 360 fans can now live in less fear of their console breaking down with them themselves paying for the repairs. But it also underlines how Microsoft has been lying to the public and pretended nothing was wrong. Many XBox 360 fans defended Microsoft, one fan at NeoGAF finally apologized to the people for insulting the people who experienced problems. Similar behaviour on the isue existed even here at AmigaWorld as well.

Last edited by MikeB on 06-Jul-2007 at 09:24 AM.

This is definitely a bit better read than the last Microsoft interview linked here:

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6173660.html?action=convert&om_clk=latestnews&tag=latestnews;title;1

In timely related news Microsoft missed their Xbox 360 sales target slightly, but still almost made the 12 million shipped by June 30 (400k short, so still rounds to 12 mil). An impressive number, but no doubt Wii will catch it in any case with the rate that beast is jumping. Interesting to see how these warranty news will affect future sales.

@MikeB

Verified

_________________
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I dont suffer from Insanity - I enjoy it

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@MikeB

I think this announcement certainly has meaning for Xbox 360's market success. Lets not make this into a comparison thread (although interesting that the Bloomberg mostly concentrated on Xbox 360's fight with Wii, tells you something) if we can, but I do appreciate and acknowledge that this has impact on Xbox 360's market success.

Even more so, I appreciate Microsoft for doing this because they must have known analysis like this is forthcoming and probably, to some extent, right. I believe it was about lesser evils and the best long-term gains mostly: they had even more to loose should this have continued to escalate and this will now buy them time and goodwill while they hopefully attempt to really fix this and fix it for good.

A significant amount of people online are already expressing their appreciation over the move. This will also mean sales for those who may have been sitting on the fence because of this - whether or not those will be enough to offset any other market loss is of course anyone's guess. (It will not of course heal that 1 billion lost, but that's not directly related to market success or penetration percentages, we know other companies are making a lot of loss on their consoles as well even without these issues.)

Bach said Microsoft's Xbox division is still looking at profitability year starting 1 July 2007.

Last edited by jtsiren on 06-Jul-2007 at 02:07 AM.
Last edited by jtsiren on 06-Jul-2007 at 02:06 AM.

@MikeB

Quote:

Microsoft Corp. today announced that it will expand its global Xbox 360 warranty coverage.

I just read the news on Gamespot myself. That certainly covers a part of the large reaction I said Microsoft needed to do - in fact, the extension to the warranty was far bigger than I expected. Also the amount of money they are committing to this is a significant amount of "taking responsibility". Personally it also means I'm covered for a year and a half more should problems arise, cool.

I also think it was important to hear this:
http://www.xbox.com/en-US/support/petermooreletter.htm

Quote:

Open Letter From Peter Moore To our Xbox Community: You've spoken, and we’ve heard you. Good service and a good customer experience are areas of the business that we care deeply about. And frankly, we've not been doing a good enough job. Some of you have expressed frustration with the customer experiences you have had with Xbox 360; frustration with having to return your console for service after receiving the general hardware error message on the console. The majority of customers who own Xbox 360 consoles have had a terrific experience from their first day, and continue to, day in and day out. But when anyone questions the reliability of our product, or our commitment to our customers, it's something I take very seriously. We have been following this issue closely, and with on-going testing have identified several factors that can cause a general hardware failure indicated by three flashing red lights on the console. To address this issue, and as part of our ongoing work, we have already made certain improvements to the console. We are also implementing some important policy changes intended to keep you in the game, worry-free. As of today, all Xbox 360 consoles are covered by an enhanced warranty program to address specifically the general hardware failures indicated by the three flashing red lights on the console. This applies to new and previously-sold consoles. While we will still have a general one year console warranty (two years in some countries), we are announcing today a three-year warranty that covers any console that displays a three flashing red lights error message. If a customer has an issue indicated by the three flashing red lights, Microsoft will repair the console free of charge—including shipping—for three years from the console’s purchase date. We will also retroactively reimburse any of you who paid for repairs related to problems indicated by this error message in the past. In doing so, Microsoft stands behind its products and takes responsibility to ensure that every Xbox 360 console owner continues to have a fantastic gaming experience. If we have let any of you down in the experience you have had with your Xbox 360, we sincerely apologize. We are taking responsibility and are making these changes to ensure that every Xbox 360 owner continues to have a great experience. This will take a few days to roll out globally, and I appreciate your continued patience as we launch this program. I've posted an FAQ that should address some additional questions, and we'll update it over the next few days. I want to thank you, on behalf of all us at Microsoft, for your loyalty.

They also have a FAQ of the extension:
http://www.xbox.com/en-US/support/systemuse/xbox360/resources/warrantyfaq.htm

And an audio file:
http://assets.xbox.com/en-us/support/audio/mnr-070507-233-PeterMooreXbox360Warranty-wma.wma

At Gamespot:

Quote:

"We haven't done right by our customers, and for that I apologize," he told GameSpot. "We listened, and we're going to make it right." Moore also posted an open letter to the 360 community on Xbox.com. Moore also shot down point-blank unconfirmed reports that Forza Motorsport 2 was "bricking" consoles. "It's not a software issue, guys," he assured GameSpot. "It's a variety of hardware issues which we're taking steps to rectify."

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6173633.html?action=convert&om_clk=latestnews&tag=latestnews;title;0

Now, having said that, this is still not enough for me. The warranty part is now covered to an acceptable level. Three years for a console is a long time in my books, probably over half of the expected lifespan of the entire Xbox 360 anyway. I have no problem believing Microsoft will meet this responsibility.

However, what they still need to do is show they can fix this for good - a little glue there and a heatsink there won't be enough if people still keep getting the ring of death too often. (Maybe the new heatsink helps, that we have no data yet of.) We need to see, and this of course takes time now, if, when and how the reliability rate has again risen to a normal and acceptable level.

Microsoft has now said it will fix this. They have made the first part of the equation right: protecting the consumers investment to an IMHO acceptable level. What we still need to expect of them is to really fix the hardware too, so that future purchased as well as fixed consoles won't have this abnormal level of failures - lets see if they do fix it.

I am hopeful they will, and may even do so more publicly, because they now have - marketing-wise - that black eye to heal.

What I do mostly appreciate about this, though, is that after the arrogance they now showed humilty. This has not always happened in the console world when failures have occurred. Microsoft could have done all this without apologies and without directly accepting that what people are saying e.g. online is right, but they mostly did apologize and acknowledge and I appreciate it. Like they guy coming out of the fight with that black eye and then apologizing the next morning - it may have come a little late, and the fight was still had, but what counts after that is how they make it right. Personally I might have gone to an even more apologetic tone, but for a U.S. corporate apology I guess this is as good as it gets - and the money invested certainly is "good".

An off-topic thought: I wonder how much wonders a few well-placed apologies and warranty extensions (well, the apologies at least) would do in the Amiga community, healing-wise.

Last edited by jtsiren on 06-Jul-2007 at 01:47 AM.
Last edited by jtsiren on 06-Jul-2007 at 01:46 AM.

Quote:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOrvYZ2gPwZk&refer=home Microsoft to Book Xbox Cost of Up to $1.15 Billion July 5 (Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp. will incur pretax costs of as much as $1.15 billion related to repairs of its Xbox 360 video-game consoles and said sales of the machines missed its forecasts for the year. Warranty coverage for the consoles is being extended after an ``unacceptable'' number required repairs, the company said today in a statement. Microsoft expects the move to cost $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion in the quarter ended June 30. The setback may hinder Microsoft, the world's biggest software maker, as it strives to catch up with Nintendo Co.'s Wii, which has outsold the Xbox every month since going on sale in November. Microsoft pledged to make the Xbox division profitable in the year that began July 1 as investors have tired of losses incurred since 2001. ``It's a pretty big black eye,'' said Matt Rosoff, an analyst at Kirkland, Washington-based research firm Directions on Microsoft. ``It's certainly not going to help the Xbox compete against Nintendo and it may be the stumble'' that PlayStation 3 maker Sony Corp. needs to win sales. Shares of Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft fell 8 cents to $29.91 in extended trading. They dropped 3 cents to $29.99 at 4 p.m. New York time in Nasdaq Stock Market trading. Microsoft missed its forecast for Xbox unit sales for the year just ended, Robbie Bach, president of Microsoft's entertainment and devices unit, said in an interview. The company has sold 11.6 million machines since its release in November 2005, missing Microsoft's target of 12 million. Initially, Microsoft forecast sales of as much as 15 million. Profit Goals Intact Bach said the company is still shooting for Xbox profit in the year that began July 1. Microsoft has forecast total profit of 37 cents to 39 cents a share on sales of $13.1 billion to $13.4 billion for the quarter that ended June 30. The company reports earnings on July 19. ``You have to wonder how expensive the Xbox business is going to be,'' Rosoff said. ``This is another billion in the hole.'' The charge represents enough to fix 2.5 million consoles, Rosoff said. Bach declined to say how many have failed so far. ``It's a meaningful number and it's got our attention,'' he said. ``When you look at the financial implication obviously it's not a small number.'' Any customer whose console experiences a general hardware failure indicated by three flashing red lights will now be covered by a three-year warranty from the date of purchase. The previous warranty had been one year in North America and Asia and two years in continental Europe, Bach said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOrvYZ2gPwZk&refer=home%A0

Kudos to the European protection agencies and retailers which finally dared to speak up.

This sounds very promising:

Quote:

Microsoft Corp. today announced that it will expand its global Xbox 360 warranty coverage. Any Xbox 360 customer who experiences a general hardware failure indicated by three flashing red lights will now be covered by a three year warranty from date of purchase. All other existing Xbox 360 warranty policies remain in place. As a result of what Microsoft views as an unacceptable number of repairs to Xbox 360 consoles, the company conducted extensive investigations into potential sources of general hardware failures. Having identified a number of factors which can cause general hardware failures indicated by three red flashing lights on the console, Microsoft has made improvements to the console and is enhancing its Xbox 360 warranty policy for existing and new customers. Microsoft stands behind its products and is taking responsibility to repair or replace any Xbox 360 console that experiences the "three flashing red lights" error message within three years from time of purchase free of charge, including shipping costs. Microsoft will take a $1.05 billion to $1.15 billion pre-tax charge to earnings for the quarter ended June 30, 2007 for anticipated costs under its current and enhanced Xbox 360 policies. "The majority of Xbox 360 owners are having a great experience with their console and have from day one. But, this problem has caused frustration for some of our customers and for that, we sincerely apologize," said Robbie Bach, president of Microsoft's Entertainment & Devices Division. "We value our community tremendously and look at this as an investment in our customer base. We look forward to great things to come." For any customer who has previously paid for repair expenses related to the three flashing lights error message on the Xbox 360 console, Microsoft will retroactively reimburse them.

http://www.gaming-age.com/news/2007/7/5-14

@KrasH

So using the towel trick rewraps the board do that somehow the connections work properly again. The heatgun "fix" I read reflows the solder connect to achieve this.