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News   News : CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
   posted by _Steve_ on 3-Sep-2003 12:51:26 (2383 reads)
As if the report yesterday of CD media not lasting too long before degradation of the recording side set in rendering them unreadable, we now have those soothsayers at Forrester, stating that the "end of physical media is nearing".

Forrester reckons that a third of all music sales will be made by downloads in the next five years. It also predicts that almost 15 per cent of films will be viewed by "on-demand" services such as cable TV rather than by DVD or video by 2005.

Although this will "wreak havoc" with traditional retailers flogging and renting the stuff, digital downloads and on-demand services could give the creative industry a much-needed shot in the arm, concluded the report From Discs to Downloads.

"On-demand services are the future of entertainment delivery. CDs, DVDs, and any other forms of physical media will become obsolete," predicted Forrester analyst Josh Bernoff.

"Music and studio executives are finally beginning to understand that they must create new media services through channels that consumers will pay for. Consumers have spoken - they are tired of paying the high cost of CDs and DVDs and prefer more flexible forms of on-demand media delivery," he said.

According to Forrester, music sales are set to increase by more than half a billion dollars in 2004 thanks to online revenues.

Equally, on-demand movie distribution channels will generate $1.4 billion by 2005, while revenue from DVDs and tapes will decline 8 percent.

In both cases it seems that the rise in revenues is due to punters becoming more comfortable with online alternatives leading to subscription services taking-off.

Forrester's survey of 6,000 people found that one in five Americans downloads music, with half admitting that they buy fewer CDs.

TheRegister
    

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Bobsonsirjonny 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 3-Sep-2003 13:47:02
#1 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 28-Jul-2003
Posts: 2880
From: Unknown

Interesting. I went to a conference a couple of years ago. The BBC were ther demoing future plans. One of the ideas was to do away with scheduling (prounounced SHEDULE... for all you americans ) and to have all the programs resident on a server. Viewers then select what they want accordingly...

But this created doubts about the licence fee. It would be the ultimate viewer survey.. and may prove that they dont need as much subsidy as they get.

Trouble is we now have more bandwidth, airtime etc.. and broadcasters need to fill it. Our TV has become cheap and nasty compared to what it once was. The UK is now the Tabloid, Trash TV king. Put it this way, Americans laugh at the quality of our shows, and that says a lot....

Its as if we have had a total role reversal. We used to make Hi browed drama, news and documentary, and they made Jerry Springer. Now its the other way around.

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Laser 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 3-Sep-2003 17:25:27
#2 ]
Regular Member
Joined: 19-Jul-2003
Posts: 333
From: Norwich, UK

Quote:
Forrester's survey of 6,000 people found that one in five Americans downloads music, with half admitting that they buy fewer CDs


The wonderful world of statistics.

How many of them paid for the downloaded music that they chose not to buy the CD for?

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Anonymous 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 3-Sep-2003 17:44:51
# ]



Who watches tv much nowadays anyway?
Whilst writing this I am listening to music, and have a book ready to read when I have finished this. BTW my msic is from a legit cd, I only download samples frrom official sites.
Maybe we should revive theatre instead

 
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Opi-Poi 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 3-Sep-2003 20:03:33
#4 ]
Member
Joined: 14-Aug-2003
Posts: 28
From: Guernsey , Channel islands

"wreak havoc", Yeah right!

This is only half the story.

People are downloading music, but they are then searching that
same music at retail stores (87% according to a BBC report).

I thought the video would have died out shortly after the release
of DVD, but we are still selling them albeit at a low price.
Vinyl has made a minor comeback.
CD / DVD sales are buoyant at the independent music shop where I work.
It seems people like the fact that you can feel a product.

Analyst claims are usually over-stressed, remember the change to 3G phones!
This hasn't happened (yet).

These things sometimes take time to filter through.

I'm certainly not worried for my job just yet!

Music companies need to invest in long term acts instead of relying on
short turn around money spinning pop acts like "Pop Idol" if the industry
is not to slide even more.
Whichever way you provide this.

I'm not convinced that a MSN/Vivendi type online music service will provide
anything different than your local supermarket.

Apple's iTunes has (mostly) got it right.
They have got around the problem of customers losing their music collection
via HD crash, theft by having a purchase validation back-up, which is good.

I commented in a previous thread that CDs are easy to damage (especially CD-Rs)
which is true, but if handled properly they will last a long time.
My few CDs from 1985 are still fine.

Anyway, I'd take this report with a pinch of salt.


_________________
"The traveller who drags his feet, only raises dust."
- from "Monkey" TV series.

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unclecurio 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 3-Sep-2003 22:17:31
#5 ]
Regular Member
Joined: 22-Jan-2003
Posts: 411
From: Edinburgh, Scotland

Quote:
Americans laugh at the quality of our shows


Partly becuase we're foolish enough to import the worst of their shows. There's still a few good bits of home grown television out there.


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Folding@Home Team AmigaWorld no: 33424

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Anonymous 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 4-Sep-2003 12:16:02
# ]



Quote:
How many of them paid for the downloaded music that they chose not to buy the CD for?


I don't recall CD prices coming down much after the big firms were condemned for price-fixing not that long ago, either.

Plus they all get their cut on every blank CD sold, even if you're using it for something other than copying music CDs: backing up data, storing photos, distributing free software in accordance with the GPL.

One major reason I'm buying fewer CDs is the bloody stupid protection schemes which mean the damn thing is unusable in over half my players. And might even render my equipment unusable cf the CD that totally locked up your Mac, requiring a trip to the repairman. Roll on iTunes in Europe.

 
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Bodie_CI5 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 5-Sep-2003 0:43:09
#7 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 29-Jul-2003
Posts: 6739
From: Unknown

So if this is the end of physical media, what will spiritual media do for us then?

Sorry bad joke, sounded good in my head.


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Bodie_CI5 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 5-Sep-2003 0:43:11
#8 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 29-Jul-2003
Posts: 6739
From: Unknown

--edit--

ooops double post

Yeah the mods can delete this one.


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The_Editor 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 9-Nov-2003 18:38:13
#9 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 7-Mar-2003
Posts: 7629
From: 192.168.0.02 ..Pederburgh .. Iceni

I hardly watch telly anymore anyway.. Always on here.


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The_Editor 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 9-Nov-2003 18:38:32
#10 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 7-Mar-2003
Posts: 7629
From: 192.168.0.02 ..Pederburgh .. Iceni

Double


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The_Editor 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 9-Nov-2003 18:38:48
#11 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 7-Mar-2003
Posts: 7629
From: 192.168.0.02 ..Pederburgh .. Iceni

Post


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I dont suffer from Insanity - I enjoy it

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The_Editor 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 9-Nov-2003 18:39:04
#12 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 7-Mar-2003
Posts: 7629
From: 192.168.0.02 ..Pederburgh .. Iceni

?


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The_Editor 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 9-Nov-2003 18:39:30
#13 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 7-Mar-2003
Posts: 7629
From: 192.168.0.02 ..Pederburgh .. Iceni

Dont worry about it.


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The_Editor 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 9-Nov-2003 18:39:47
#14 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 7-Mar-2003
Posts: 7629
From: 192.168.0.02 ..Pederburgh .. Iceni

We


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The_Editor 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 9-Nov-2003 18:40:03
#15 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 7-Mar-2003
Posts: 7629
From: 192.168.0.02 ..Pederburgh .. Iceni

Wont


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The_Editor 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 9-Nov-2003 18:40:24
#16 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 7-Mar-2003
Posts: 7629
From: 192.168.0.02 ..Pederburgh .. Iceni

shoot


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The_Editor 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 9-Nov-2003 18:40:40
#17 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 7-Mar-2003
Posts: 7629
From: 192.168.0.02 ..Pederburgh .. Iceni

you


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The_Editor 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 9-Nov-2003 18:40:57
#18 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 7-Mar-2003
Posts: 7629
From: 192.168.0.02 ..Pederburgh .. Iceni

for


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The_Editor 
Re: CDs and DVDs are "doomed"
Posted on 9-Nov-2003 18:41:13
#19 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 7-Mar-2003
Posts: 7629
From: 192.168.0.02 ..Pederburgh .. Iceni

it.


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