@MikeB

Quote:

"I can't comment on failure rates, because it's just not something -- it's a moving target. What this consumer should worry about is the way that we've treated him. Y'know, things break"

continues with:

Quote:

and if we've treated him well and fixed his problem, that's something that we're focused on right now. I'm not going to comment on individual failure rates because I'm shipping in 36 countries and it's a complex business."

Which kinda changes the meaning of the partial quote.

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Quote:

BrianK wrote: @Lou Quote: Somebody thinks the 360 could beat the PS3 in Folding@Home thanks to the better gpu making up for the weaker cpu: Looking at what F@H is doing on the PC vs the PS3 vs the GPU it appears that the calculations it's doing are not exactly the same. See http://folding.stanford.edu/FAQ-ATI.html 'Sony has developed an analogous core for the PS3’s Cell processor ' that's to the streaming core of the GPUs. CPU, PS3, and GPU clients draw from different pools of work units, and points are based on the performance of a benchmark system rather than how many calculations have actually been completed. Thus, a bit different math and a different pool make direct performance comparisons between the 3 methods difficult. But Stanford does hint that the X1900X is the fasted F@H yet.

Note that Xenos GPU implements 48 unified shaders architecture (Vec4 op + 1 scalar op) with 64 HW threads.

Due to unified shaders architecture, the Xenos's micro-architecture slightly advances over R580/RV570 micro-architecture. R580/RV570 has the advantage of 256bit wide memory controller and 512 HW threads (for pixel shaders processors) i.e. more data being stored next to the execution units.

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@Lou
Quote:

A tweaked mobile Celeron did not outperform the GC in real-world gaming and the GC's gpu was only properly utilized by a couple of development teams. The extra memory of the Xbox did let it have bigger environments and the like, that was the major advantage of the Xbox.

Note that, the "tweaked mobile Celeron " CPU is aided by NV2A’s dual vertex shader processors.

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@Hammer

Quote:

Hammer wrote: @Lou Quote: A tweaked mobile Celeron did not outperform the GC in real-world gaming and the GC's gpu was only properly utilized by a couple of development teams. The extra memory of the Xbox did let it have bigger environments and the like, that was the major advantage of the Xbox. Note that, the "tweaked mobile Celeron " CPU is aided by NV2A’s dual vertex shader processors.

And the GC has fixed function shader functions as well as the TEV unit which is programmable and can do 8(16 for the Wii) operations on a texture without sending it back through the pipeline...which was under-utilized by all but 3 or 4 dev teams.

Again, more RAM, a hard drive and DVD-9 media are what pushed the Xbox over the edge. The larger framebuffer allowed it to do 720p in some games.

,,,but we're getting off topic...

The point is that the GC is comparable to the Xbox and any allegations that the Wii is not even more powerful than the original Xbox is just poppycock.

Nintendo needs to lead the way in educating developers on how to use the TEV unit to it's fullest potential.

Last edited by Lou on 12-May-2007 at 04:18 AM.

@Lou
Quote:

EA says 360 is more powerful than the PS3

EA's approach and wanting to ensure cross platform compatibility they're likely right. It could just be me but I'd listen to other developers before EA.

Thanks for the link on upcoming games. Using my own personal preference which likely have little influence on the overall market I'd rank NA as 360, Wii, and PS3. For Japan the Wii looks to have some better titles then the PS3.

There's roughly 40M HDTV sets in the world and the projections are about 150M by 2011. PS3 and 360 are focused on this higher end TV market. Yes they work fine on a regular TV but they are selling their wares with HDTV in mind. I can see where consumers say I'll buy the cheaper Wii today for gaming and in 3 years the PS3 price will drop and I'll likely have a HDTV then so I can wait. Yes the PS2 took 3 years before it started taking off. Perhaps the PS3 will do the same. But, with the headstart of the 360 and speed of Wii sales I'm doubtful it'll be enough to pull Sony back into 1st place. Again if lucky they might eek out 2nd. I agree the Wii seems to be the PS2 of the 7th gen consoles.

Playstation 3 firmware update 2.0 details released.


http://www.psu.com/node/10962

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SCEA president, Jack Tretton, states
Quote:

"We're into this for the next 10 years and beyond

Does Sony not get that 7th Gen does not have a 10 year lifespan? They may have enjoyed that sort of thing in the past? Microsoft has already stated goaling 2011-2012 for the 3rd Xbox. Thinking Sony can wait 6-7 years after that by only using the PS3 is a bet I wouldn't be taking. Microsoft's has a history of 3rd time is a charm.

@BrianK

I know Nintendo is guarranteed to release another console in 5 years geared towards the HD-era... With all the money they are making now, maybe they can afford to over-engineer the gpu and cpu next time around...

@BrianK

Quote:

BrianK wrote: SCEA president, Jack Tretton, states Quote: "We're into this for the next 10 years and beyond Does Sony not get that 7th Gen does not have a 10 year lifespan? They may have enjoyed that sort of thing in the past? Microsoft has already stated goaling 2011-2012 for the 3rd Xbox. Thinking Sony can wait 6-7 years after that by only using the PS3 is a bet I wouldn't be taking. Microsoft's has a history of 3rd time is a charm.

Where did you read Sony will only launch PS4 after the lifespan of the PS3?
As if they launched the PS2 11 years after the PS1?
When Sony talks about lifespan, they are not ruling out a new generation won't appear within that lifespan.

1994-1995: Launch of PS1
2000: Launch of PS2
2006: PS1 no longer manufactured
2006-2007: Launch of PS3

The advantage is that if you bought a PS2 recently, you still have a couple of years to enjoy new titles. I don't think we can say the same for XBOX owners.

@jiyong

Quote:

The advantage is that if you bought a PS2 recently, you still have a couple of years to enjoy new titles. I don't think we can say the same for XBOX owners.

However, different then the PS1 and PS2 it appears that the PS3 will not be #1 in the marketplace. It appears Sony owning 70% of the market again is a near impossiblity. If they end up 3rd, by the time the 8th gen consoles launch it makes little sense for them to keep the PS3 going. Very similar is how it makes little sense for Nintendo or Microsoft to keep their 6th gen console games going. If they're not #1 the financial picture is obviously not going to be as rosey as the PS2 is currently.

As for Xbox games they are still dribbling out EA launched 2K7 Baseball for the Xbox in March 07 or ~1.5 years after the 360 launch.

David Braben to work on Elite 4 soon:
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5495&Itemid=2&limit=1&limitstart=3

Pokemon Diamond & Pearl and Super Paper Mario(6 weeks in top 10) top US Amazon.com charts on all platforms: http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5627&Itemid=2

If you have a Wii and don't own Super Paper Mario yet - what's wrong with you?

MS has updated it's HD-DVD functionality:
Quote:

Added option for user to select from the following audio output formats via TOSLINK or HDMI: o Digital Stereo (2 channel PCM) o Dolby Digital 5.1 o DTS 5.1 o WMA Pro Added "Dynamic Range Control" toggle for digital audio output Improved HD DVD networking support Improved HD DVD title compatibility Improved performance with MPEG-4 AVC / H.264 1080p via HDMI is supported on the Xbox 360 Elite with HDCP compliant displays Improved parental controls

Last edited by Lou on 15-May-2007 at 03:25 PM.

@Lou

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aTVZj2sgVtvk&refer=home

Sony looks to be posting it's biggest loss in 4 years thanks to PS3.

@Lou

If I recall correctly the design, build of the fab and planning for 65nm of estimated to total around $2,000,000,000. A $20,000,000 marketing campaign. Clearly the PS3 has not recouped these expenses. It likely will over it's lifetime. Sony expected 2009 to be this point but unless something seriously picks up with their console I can't see it happening by then.

About a year ago analysts estimated that the PS3 would lose Sony $730M this year and $460M next year. It seems those were too conservative. Luckily TV sales and SpiderMan3 made big bounds for Sony.

Sony needs to focus developers on the PS3 and off the PS2 if they expect to recoup their investment and be anything more then 3rd place before the 8th Gen ships.

@BrianK

Well you got to look at their business model too.

Ask yourself:
How many Blu-Ray movies does 1 consumer need to buy before Sony breaks even on the sale of a PS3?
How many actual games does 1 consumer need to buy before Sony breaks even on the sale of a PS3?

With a .87 attach rate quoted at one time in Japan and non-specactacular BR-DVD movie sales in general, I think it will be a long time before Sony's PS3 platform makes money. Then how long will it take to offset all the prior losses.

We know how much MS got hit with the original Xbox. That's why they cut their losses and released the 360 so early.

The PS1 ran for a good 5 years before the PS2. The PS2 ran for a good 6 years before the PS3. It probably will take Sony 7 years to overcome all the losses it will have incurred. That said, I don't think Nintendo will wait 7 years before releasing a successor to the Wii, now will Microsoft wait that long either.

Once the format war is over, developers will feel constricted by the 360's DVD in several years, especially if Nintendo releases an HD-capable console with a better media drive.

Microsoft could really push the download-able software directive. Release a terabyte hard drive for the 360 and deliver all games via a 100MBit internet connection.

This will be possible because Verizon and Comcast are already proto-typing modems with 150MBit download speeds. Now in this situation, Sony's PS3 is no worse off in this scenario, however, it does render the Blu-Ray drive an un-needed expense. This un-needed expense is the whole reason the PS3 was delayed and expensive.

If both Sony and Microsoft had launched in 2005 and the Wii launched this year, I don't think Nintendo would have had the sales that it has today.

My hope for Nintendo is that they continue to add features to the Wii, releasing an "Elite" version in a couple of years that includes a dual-HD-format drive (or format-winner) as well as bigger internal flash memory (4 or 8 gigs) and atleast 540p support for TV's to easily upscale it to 1080p.

@Lou

Quote:

Sony looks to be posting it's biggest loss in 4 years thanks to PS3.

Sony actually made a profit, only the games division made a (completely unsurprising) loss.

They can probably carry on for a while but I expect a price cut in the not too distant future, late autumn at the latest.

By then they'll have more, bigger games and home (which I expect they'll be pushing for all their worth). Both of these in combination with a price cut will probably generate a healthy boost in sales. Consoles sell the vast majority of units around Christmas so they'll be targeting it.

I also expect they'll be bringing out all sorts of weird and wonderful add-ons and casual games.

2008 will see a transition to 45nm and a further hefty price cut before Christmas. This could bring them into the upper range of Nintendo's wee machine and this is where things could get interesting. If they get it right and have the price low enough they could jump into the market currently eating up the Wii now, just as it seems to have replaced the PS2's.


As for down-loadable HD movies, that's not going to happen any time soon. The speed of the line is irrelevant, it's the background infrastructure that won't handle it.

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@minator

You make it sound like the 360 and Wii are not going to scale down in price as well. It will always be the most expensive of the 3 consoles.

These "wonderful add-ons" are a passing fad. Have you seen the prices for the "Rock Star" game from Harmonix? ($150-$200!) Insane. You can buy a dedicated kareoke machine for less than that.

You can call the Wii-Remote a fad, but it's not an add-on.

Quote:

As for down-loadable HD movies, that's not going to happen any time soon. The speed of the line is irrelevant, it's the background infrastructure that won't handle it.

So you don't think the background infrastructure will change over the course of the next 5 years?
http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20070508-160mbps-downloads-move-closer-for-us-cable-customers.html
FiOS is coming as well.

@minator

Quote:

they'll have more, bigger games and home .. Both of these in combination with a price cut will probably generate a healthy boost in sales

Halo2 sold 8 Million and Halo3 is predicted to best that.. 9/25/7 is it's launch. Also, if Sony drops price it's very likely Microsoft will drop their console as much. I think Christmas 07 is going to be a hard win for Sony.

Quote:

2008 will see a transition to 45nm and a further hefty price cut before Christmas.

Even if the 45nm process happens in 08 I'm doubtful a hefty price cut will do little but maintain the loss on each sold console. Wii and 360 by this time will more then likely be profitable.

Sony has missed quite a few dates for the PS3. Any more slippage runs easily into 09 and perhaps 2010. Around that time frame serious 8th gen advertising starts hitting the streets and possibly a 8th gen launch. One can hope that the removal of Kutagari put someone better capable in for the PS3, though he was the one leading the winning PS1 and PS2. Since the Wii and 360 have gained in marketshare they're not going to rest on their laurels when it comes to the 8th gen.

@Lou

Quote:

Ask yourself: How many Blu-Ray movies does 1 consumer need to buy before Sony breaks even on the sale of a PS3?

All good points but it doesn't seem that Sony wanted the PS3 to be a loss leader.

Quote:

How many actual games does 1 consumer need to buy before Sony breaks even on the sale of a PS3?

The 360 has one of the highest attach rates, games sold per console, in the industry. Early on there were pundits writing on high attach rates will slow the 360's growth. Anyway the PS3 hardware is more $ lost per unit then the 360 hardware. So whatever the Sony # of games is it's likely higher then the attachment of the 360 users. I'd say in order to do this Sony needs to work on games.

Quote:

It probably will take Sony 7 years to overcome all the losses it will have incurred. That said, I don't think Nintendo will wait 7 years before releasing a successor to the Wii, now will Microsoft wait that long either.

I agree if takes Sony until 2013 to recoup their losses they are definitely in trouble because it's very likely Nintendo and Microsoft will have launched the 8th gen. I believe Microsoft's statement was they were looking at ideas to hit around 2011.

Quote:

Once the format war is over, developers will feel constricted by the 360's DVD in several years, especially if Nintendo releases an HD-capable console with a better media drive

I think the HD DVD vs Blu-Ray war will likely be over by 2011 and likely in enough time that only a handful of developers would have felt hindered by the 360. There's always downloadable content and it is currently cheaper to use multiple DVDs then a single Blu-Ray in production. Likely that'll change by 2011.

Quote:

My hope for Nintendo is that they continue to add features to the Wii,

Nintendo isn't known to be a huge risk taker. They did show a DVD capable Wii which is still rumored to come out 2008. Perhaps if the format war is decided by then it'll be that form factor. As of today there's been slightly more then 1M Blu-Rays sold and slightly under 1M HD DVDs sold. Last numbers I saw were total sales difference of ~20K. Even combined the total pales in comparison to the DVD marketplace, I believe about 1%.

@minator
Quote:

Sony actually made a profit, only the games division made a (completely unsurprising) loss.

The gaming made a huge loss...
While last year Sony Corp as a whole raked in 226.42 billion yen (USD$1.88 billion) in operating profits, this year, they could only scrape together 71.8 billion (USD$596 million). That's a drop-off of USD$1.28 billion dollars. The games biz lost a staggering $1.9 billion.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=25038

Wonder how many PS3 sales it'll take to recoup the losses this year... OUCH!

The PS3 is a 10 year project. Sony expected loses with the PS3 for the first few years. Thats what long term investments are all about.

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