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Super Member |
Joined: 19-Jun-2005 Posts: 1714
From: Melbourne, Australia | | |
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| @COBRA
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I know someone who's doing it right now. |
That takes care of one of the requirements. Let me know when she has finished, thus having demonstrated matching the other. Or let me know when the effort gets abandoned (like so many attempts before), thus establishing the failure to meet the second requirement.
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How could an OS be useful if you can't even buy it? |
According to Hyperion, it was completed and released over two years ago. People supposedly have been using the completed (and occasionally updated) AmigaOS4 for the last 30 months. Tell me, how useful *is* it. What can you do with it that you can't do with another OS, and how does that compare to the things you can't do with it, yet can with other OSs?
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That's not what I said now is it? I said in the first year of having attractive and affordable hardware available you'd probably sell that much, when there's not yet many software titles available for it. |
You also stated that that would constitute a "building market" and would attract software developers, which in turn would produce software, which in turn would attract more users in subsequent years.
1000-2000 units are not a market. Not if you, as a developer, would like to actually eat and sleep under a roof.
And let's not forget, your original claim was 20,000 users by now if hardware had been available from the time of the first OS4 release. That's 3 years. You have just conceded that the first year, you would not expect more than 1000-2000 users. Which leaves you a target of 18,000 to 19,000 in the next two years. In other words, For that, you'd have to maintain something like a 12% monthly growth, every month, for 24 months. Note that that's not growing your market by 12% each month, but your *sales*. Good luck, given that even at the end of those 3 years, you have no market to speak of, and thus nothing to attract developers, and thus no software, and thus nothing to attract more buyers. Because, you know, even your extremely optimistic three year sales prediction accounts for no more than *one day's worth* of Apple pre-Christmas sales. Think about it. At the end of those three years, and assuming that all the units you sold were still functional and in use, a developer could choose to target your AmigaOS system, or Mac computers sold on December 19th, 2006 --- and either way, their potential market would be the same size. Of course, in reality, any software that runs on the 2006/12/19 Macs is likely to also run on the 2006/12/18 and the 2006/12/20 Macs, while the AmigaOS market is, well, it...
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And considering all the constant whining of people in the forums, crying for new hardware to get OS4, you say hardware is not the problem? |
Yes, that's exactly what I am saying. Because "all the constant whining of people" adds up to extremely few people. Which is the problem --- there are too few people who really want to run OS4 to make it a market anyone serious would invest money into. Heck, the most committed proposal I have heard to date was from Tigger, of all people! If there were a 100,000 people desperately wanting to run OS4, do you really think there wouldn't be hardware available right now? But for 100? Or maybe even 300? |
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