Continued from here.

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Sony Computer Entertainment's chief executive Kazuo Hirai told the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper he was confident of fulfilling 11 million PS3 sold by the end of this fiscal year, March 2008.

Vgchartz lists 7.2M PS3 sold.
That leaves 3.8Mto sell in the a 10 week period or 380K/week.

I'd expect all consoles to drop after Christmas. The PS3 doesn't seem to have this sort of performance in the past. Nor has the Wii, the best seller of the 3.

The only thing I can imagine driving this could a severe after Christmas price cut.

@BrianK

Quote:

BrianK wrote: Sony Computer Entertainment's chief executive Kazuo Hirai told the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper he was confident of fulfilling 11 million PS3 sold by the end of this fiscal year, March 2008. Vgchartz lists 7.2M PS3 sold. That leaves 3.8Mto sell in the a 10 week period or 380K/week. I'd expect all consoles to drop after Christmas. The PS3 doesn't seem to have this sort of performance in the past. Nor has the Wii, the best seller of the 3. The only thing I can imagine driving this could a severe after Christmas price cut.

Yeah, 1.5M a month is not going to happen...

According to VGChartz Italy has joined the list of countries where the PS3 has already overtaken total XBox 360 sales (the PS2 still outsold the PS3 though), not bad considering the 1 year and 5 months headstart for the 360!

Only places of concern are the United States, United Kingdom and Australia, but I think this will be overcome when the major PS3 blockbusters like Killzone 2, Gran Turismo 5, Final Fantasy XIII and Metal Gear Solid 4 hit those countries (there's nothing in the XBox 360 known line-up for 2008 which comes close to the anticipation of Halo 3, which has of course already been released a while ago).

Last edited by MikeB on 17-Dec-2007 at 08:27 PM.

@MikeB

Quote:

(there's nothing in the XBox 360 known line-up for 2008 which comes close to the anticipation of Halo 3,

cough ** Halo Wars ** cough

Australia's smaller brother New Zealand is of no concern as the PS2, PS3 and PSP are this country's top selling consoles:

http://www.gameplanet.co.nz/mag.dyn/News/12353.html

@BrianK

I don't think Halo Wars will sell as well as Halo 3 and will mainly sell amongst the current XBox 360 Halo fan install base.

@MikeB

Quote:

I don't think Halo Wars will sell as well as Halo 3 and will mainly sell amongst the current XBox 360 Halo fan install base.

You do realize the current Halo fan install base, re Halo3 sales, is over 5M? That's roughtly the same # as total PS3 consoles. So there's plenty of sales to be had for Halo Wars. Halo1 was a game that showed that FPS were good and could be successful on consoles. Early looks at Halo Wars seem to indicate it well may be the game that shows RTS can be on consoles too. But, look at your PS3 games listing neither Killzone2 nor GT5 will sell 5M copies. FFXIII perhaps has a big enough following.

But, if you're goaling for popular sequels (FF, MGS, KZ, GT, all sequels). The 360 has plenty of popular one's coming. Ninja Gaiden 2 will sell, and after showing Sony fans what they missed the first time might encourage a few new console sales. Fable 2, Halo Wars. And of course UT3 is coming. I know you've said before 2008 brings no good games on the 360, you're simply wrong in that idea.

@BrianK

Quote:

I know you've said before 2008 brings no good games on the 360, you're simply wrong in that idea.

No, I never said that, that's again putting words into my mouth. I said Halo 3 is by far the most anticipated, I'm not a Halo fan and would prefer BioShock or Mass Effect (if the game offered a solid framerate), so that has nothing to do with me liking a game or not.

The sales of Halo 3 are really of no surprise as these were the most important games on the XBox (both Halo and Halo 2 both so far sold more) and according to analysts interviewed at gametrailers about 90% of current XBox 360 install base owned a XBox (probably the result of the XBox' early demise).

Halo Wars, I think many would prefer to play such a game with mouse and keyboard. The worldwide PS3 install base is now probably about 8 million.

@MikeB

Quote:

Halo Wars, I think many would prefer to play such a game with mouse and keyboard.

Perhaps remember that was the mantra of the FPS then Halo came and changed it. Now we see the PS3 with lots of popular FPS.

Halo Wars is built from scratch as an RTS for the console. How/if it works time will tell. It may well do what RTS what Halo did for FPS.

@BrianK

Quote:

But, look at your PS3 games listing neither Killzone2 nor GT5 will sell 5M copies.

Gran Turismo 1, 2, 3 and 4 all outsold any Halo game released, only Gran Turismo 4 prologue sold significantly less as people were waiting for the full version. Killzone 2 will not sell well in Japan, but many European and US FPS fans wanting the latest and greatest FPS will probably buy the PS3 for this game.

@MikeB

Sony's recent prediction is a near 3M additional console sales in 10 weeks. What do you see in Jan and Feb that may push these levels?

@MikeB

Quote:

MikeB wrote: @BrianK Quote: But, look at your PS3 games listing neither Killzone2 nor GT5 will sell 5M copies. Gran Turismo 1, 2, 3 and 4 all outsold any Halo game released, only Gran Turismo 4 prologue sold significantly less as people were waiting for the full version. Killzone 2 will not sell well in Japan, but many European and US FPS fans wanting the latest and greatest FPS will probably buy the PS3 for this game.

Makes sense when you consider how popular the ps1 and ps2 was. Xbox never did have higher market share than playstation until now, so i think it might be opposite now, unless something drastic happens"big price cut".

@BrianK

Quote:

Sony's recent prediction is a near 3M additional console sales in 10 weeks. What do you see in Jan and Feb that may push these levels?

Assuming that's sold to consumers instead of retailers. Here are some potential factors, Grand Theft Auto IV may have a significant impact, PS3 pre-orders are beating XBox 360 pre-orders so far at Amazon.com (US - Xbox 360 stronghold):



Other games will be Gran Turismo 5 prologue (for US and Europe), Hot Shots Golf 5 (for the US and Europe), Wipeout HD (worldwide on PSN), MLB: The Show 08 may be of interest to people in the US (not Europe nor Japan), some games like Devil May Cry 4 may have a much larger impact for the PS3 than for the 360 (especially for Japan).

And then there are Metal Gear Solid 4 (early 2008) and Haze (Jan 15th for US) around that time... Some titles release date pending...

Sony's Fiscal Year ends March 31st, 2008.

Last edited by MikeB on 17-Dec-2007 at 11:02 PM.
Last edited by MikeB on 17-Dec-2007 at 11:02 PM.
Last edited by MikeB on 17-Dec-2007 at 10:51 PM.
Last edited by MikeB on 17-Dec-2007 at 10:47 PM.

@MikeB

Last year, vgchartz again, it appears 1.5M sold in this timeframe. So now can they really sell over 2x as much? Perhaps they finally got the cost down enough and have enough games coming in Jan. I think they are over estimating.

As for those sequels and sales. You're right they had more user count then Halo. But to be fair they had lower console penetration, in other words more consoles in user's hands. Surely they'll drive some sales. I too think 2008 might be the year the PS3 catches up. We'll see.

@Tomas

Quote:

Is more about adding some balance to this thread by showing that sony aint so much better like Mikeb is trying to make us believe.

You do know that's quite a strange comment? It's Mike against everybody else here..
Also everyone says his comments are wrong and over estimated so why the need
to balance the thread with FUD found all over the net?
That actually includes Mike to! FUD and unconfirmed rumours and comments taken
out of context from all over just sucks IMO.


Quote:

I know that the xbox 360 is/was very unreliable, so i have no problem admitting that. I am not really a fan of either console, as neither one of them beats a pc with okay specifications. The reason i own consoles is because i dont want to bother with booting windows just for games and also dont want to bother with replacing gpu every other year or so.

What I can gather so far the difference between 360 and PS3 reliability problems is
like comparing an elephant to a fly.

But MicroSoft seems to have fixed their major problem though. No reports of dead
machines by the boat load lately.

The difference being that a PC will cost you way more for what it's worth as a games
machine. But I'm quite sure Hammer will disagree. But I'm not interested in running games
in lower resolution, lower frame rate than others having my as beaten because my
machine isn't fast enough on all those FPS games.


Quote:

Though personally i have luckily so far had less problem with my xbox 360 than with my ps3. I have yet to have a single lockup on my xbox 360, while my ps3 has locked up a few times when returning to game-os after using linux or playing a game. Also last night when playing strangehold the game suddenly turned into a slide show. It was like it froze half a second every 5 seconds or so and this kept going for a couple of minutes.

Heh a couple of locks.. I would rather blame the games rather than PS3. Especially
the third party games. It's ALWAYS those that have problems.
Have you seen any Sony games with frame rate problems btw? Loading times?
(Major) bugs even?

I played around with a friends 360 a couple of days ago. It was a bit loud but nothing
major. Nice looking menu system. Seems like a ok. Machine. Now that the hardware
issues are gone it's a really good buy, especially the arcade. You will after all buy
your own cables anyway.

Quote:

My point is that neither console is perfect and that both seems to have some issues that really should not be there. The issues regarding xbox 360 does not seem to be a small problem at least, as most people seem know at least a few people who experienced the ring of death. Wii on the other hand seems very reliable so far.

I agree no console is perfect. I dthink Sony's choice of having nVidia was a bad one.
I have always been a fan of ATI's offerings myself.

To say Sony has reliability problems is really stretching it.. FAR!
I think all the consoles are quite reliable now. The 40GB version being more reliable
than the older ones just by being cooler.
Wii being really old technology will of course be rock solid. We'll see in the future
regarding their optical drives, joypads and so forth.

Last edited by Samwel on 18-Dec-2007 at 06:03 AM.
Last edited by Samwel on 18-Dec-2007 at 06:02 AM.

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@BrianK

I don't think they will manage to sell 11 million until end of March. I'm quite sure 10 million is
possible. They have this week and 14 more weeks. That will be less than 254 000 each week
including this week. If we imagine Sony reaches 7.8 million sold PS3's after this week it will
be less than 229000 consoles per week until end of March.
Do you really think that will be impossible? Unlikely yes, but not impossible IMHO.

Sony's going to sell higher average monthly numbers than last year I think. Wii will keep
it's numbers from last year. The console that will be loosing sales to PS3 will be 360 I think.
Not major numbers though.. But a steadily increasing margin over the whole year of 2008.
They compete for the same buyers. Wii is somewhat outside of this market.

What do you think? Am I way off or?

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@Tomas

Btw Xvid does work just fine!

Last edited by Samwel on 18-Dec-2007 at 11:23 AM.

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@BrianK

Quote:

BrianK wrote: @MikeB Sony's recent prediction is a near 3M additional console sales in 10 weeks. What do you see in Jan and Feb that may push these levels?

Yep, I'm home for a couple of weeks.
I have only glanced once in a while at the console threads, but for someone who claims to be quite knowledgeable in math, you are not really showing it when you discuss Sony.

As Samwell points out, until the end of March 2008 is not 10 weeks.

I also see in the media that Sony is talking shipped, not sold. I haven't seen the interview, but usually Sony talks shipped. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

We can also wonder what VGChartz actually includes in the "Other" region. Does it include Korea and India? Perhaps sales there are not that high, but perhaps Sony can ship a lot there to get that 11 million mark.

You also mention you see no big titles for the PS3 after X-Mas and before end of March 2008. Well, how would you qualify Haze, Burnout Paradise, DMC4 and Singstar (I got those from the release list at IGN)? And perhaps we will see from this week how much boxes Sony can push now that Japan can get their hands on GT5 Prologue.