Continued from here

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Everything you say will be misquoted and used against you..
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To summarize, sales for this generation so far (end of March 2008, LTD):

- Wii sold 24.45 million units to retailers wordwide.
- 360 (had a year or more headstart worldwide) 19 million sold to retail.
- PS2 sold more than 25 million to retail since 360's launch, LTD March 2008 129.39 million. Cheapest of the current generation of home consoles, despite market saturation continues to perform remarkably well.
- PS3 12.85 million (sold 1.85 million units more than 360 in an equal timeframe, this at a much higher entry price and more months headstart for the 360 for Europe and other countries beside Japan and North America where it's just 1 year)

Outlook:

- Apart from Star Wars and Fable all major XBox titles have already seen sequels on the 360. Hardware sales expected to slow after reaching a similar install base as the original XBox has.

- Metal Gear Solid 4 to be released for the PS3 in June 2008. This title is highly anticipated in all regions. Final Fantasy still doesn't have a release date, it's considered to be by far the most anticipated game for Japan. Same goes for Gran Turismo 5, which is very important for Europe, however the prologue has already siginifanctly outsold Gran Turismo 4: Prologue. The series sold more than 50 million copies in total.

- Wii is selling like crazy and will beat the other home consoles this year by a wide margin.

IMO the 360 is heading towards becoming a distant third this generation.

Last edited by MikeB on 17-May-2008 at 07:27 PM.

@MikeB

I don't know about "distant" 3rd, but even 3rd place will make boatloads of money...
Also, as much as you are betting MSG4 to increase the userbase substantialy, so you also were you on GTA4. It didn't do anything for April's sales in the US at all.

I wouldn't critisize the 360 for sequel-itis as the PS3 is no angel in that regard - GTA4, FF13, MSG4, GT5, Tekken X, Ridge Racer 7, Ratchet & Clank (je ne sais quo)...etc... It's also enjoyed it's share of new I.P. as well as has the PS3 and Wii.

Really, what are we trying to achieve here? Why doesn't everyone just conform and join me on World of Warcraft?

@Lou

Quote:

Also, as much as you are betting MSG4 to increase the userbase substantialy, so you also were you on GTA4. It didn't do anything for April's sales in the US at all.

Relatively to the 360 I certainly expect a very positive effect. Microsoft had a lot of hopes for GTA IV on the 360, considering its entry price point and the US is by far their strongest performing market. So surely they are dissapointed. I merely stated attach rates will be higher on the PS3 and that's the case.

Quote:

I wouldn't critisize the 360 for sequel-itis as the PS3 is no angel in that regard

What are you talking about? Sequels to popular XBox games pushes XBox users to upgrade towards a 360. Microsoft did their best to release their sequels as fast as possible. I am going to see Indiana Jones 4 later this month, I have nothing against good sequels to blockbuster games and movies.

Last edited by MikeB on 18-May-2008 at 11:10 AM.

@MikeB

Quote:

I merely stated attach rates will be higher on the PS3 and that's the case.

I don't think it's significant. On average 360 owners will have had their console for longer and will already own more games. The 360 is also more focused on online play - hence why friends still play (the very boring) Halo 3. GTA is traditionally a PlayStation title first. People bought a PS2 for a GTA3 and may get a PS3 for GTA4. It's a shame they're not getting the higher-framerate and resolution for whatever reason.

Quote:

What are you talking about? Sequels to popular XBox games pushes XBox users to upgrade towards a 360. Microsoft did their best to release their sequels as fast as possible.

Maybe this is because you didn't own a console before this generation, but it has little to do with Microsoft.=It really ramped up on the PS1 when Core were releasing Tomb Raider every year (to the point of killing it) and EA Sports started churning out yearly refreshes of FIFA and so on. Soon everyone was at it. Japanese companies like Nintendo and Capcom always recognised the value of a franchise and it took until the mid-90s for the rest of the world to catch on.

As for Microsoft,they bought some games studios like Rare, who were already working on titles. 2 of the first 3 Rare titles for 360 were original, and Perfect Dark Zero started life as a GameCube title.

Real-Time Worlds have made Crackdown and are working on APB, two original titles. Microsoft bought Bungie when they were working on the original Halo, and Bungie have since done what the people responsible for Call Of Duty, Metroid Prime or a million other first-person shooters have done, and made some sequels. It would have been madness not to.

Project Gotham is probably the only game that really fits your argument. I'm sure Sony would've rushed out Gran Turismo for the PS2 and PS3 launches were it possible. I don't know why you try to make everything Microsoft's fault. I don't like the company either, but it's not a fair argument.

Chris

Last edited by clebin on 18-May-2008 at 01:41 PM.
Last edited by clebin on 18-May-2008 at 01:39 PM.

@MikeB

Quote:

Microsoft had a lot of hopes for GTA IV on the 360, considering its entry price point and the US is by far their strongest performing market. So surely they are dissapointed

What are you talking about? VGChartz shows 360: ~4.3M. PS3: ~3.3M, win 360. Microsoft made huge inroads into a Sony exclusive, win 360. Microsoft outstripped Sony's sales, means more profit went to Microsoft then Sony, win 360. Exclusive content on the 360 will most likely translate into a longer life for GTA IV and more profits on the 360, win 360. GTA IV increased both console sales, more for the PS3 so win PS3. 360 is profitable and PS3 is sold at a loss, win 360. Proof that Microsoft can indeed be competitive this generation, win 360. Ownership rate per console, win Sony. But, let's be honest on that last point - what makes companies profits on a game is total sales of the game not attach rates. Sales effect the bottom line attach rates are less important. Attach rate of a single game is only really useful for fangirlisms, IMO. Microsoft has no reason to be disappointed.

@clebin

Quote:

The 360 is also more focused on online play - hence why friends still play (the very boring) Halo 3.

Why more focussed? A small minority of 360 owners is even able to play online games (about a third or less, only about 66% has set up an account). Comparing this with the PS3, every PS3 owner with a proper internet connection is able to play lag-free online games such as best sellers Resistance: Fall of Man, Motorstorm, Gran Turismo 5: Prologue and Call of Duty 4, combined accounting for over 12 million copies sold.

To compare the 66% of 360 owners who set up an account of which a majority is unable to play online games Sony claims 3.9 PS3 accounts for about a 4.8 American install base, that's 82% compared to 66%.

Also looking at the PSN content, even with Microsoft's headstart there's better content available on the PSN, like Warhawk, Super Stardust HD and Gran Turismo 5: Prologue.

Apart from being free, other reasons why I think the online usage of the PS3 enjoys a much higher penetration is because of the 360 Core/Arcade lacking a harddrive and on average the other 360 owners have smaller custom harddrives, better quality and more extensive multi-media support and default Wi-Fi.

Quote:

GTA is traditionally a PlayStation title first.

The original was a PC game first. GTA has never been exclusive to Playstation consoles, this may well change with GTA V.

Quote:

It's a shame they're not getting the higher-framerate and resolution for whatever reason.

Despite being a suboptimal 360 to PS3 port, reviewers agree the graphical edge goes to the PS3 version. The output resolution is the same, even the guy who claimed that the PS3 version is rendering in a lower resolution agrees on this:

"regardless PS3 media look better for me, the light and atmosphere is more real (maybe HDR vs X360 MDR, post-process...), i agree with global reviews feeling"

http://www3.telus.net/public/dhwag/400360.jpg
http://www3.telus.net/public/dhwag/400PS3.jpg

http://www3.telus.net/public/dhwag/burger1.png (360)
http://www3.telus.net/public/dhwag/burger2.png (PS3)

http://www.cupidity.f9.co.uk/b3da008.jpg (360)
http://www.cupidity.f9.co.uk/b3da009.jpg (PS3)

The PS3 version has a more steady framerate, less loading times and best of all far less pop-in issues.

Quote:

Project Gotham is probably the only game that really fits your argument. I'm sure Sony would've rushed out Gran Turismo for the PS2 and PS3 launches were it possible. I don't know why you try to make everything Microsoft's fault. I don't like the company either, but it's not a fair argument.

Amazing both you and Lou misread what I wrote above in a similar way! Who the hell is criticizing Microsoft for releasing sequels for the 360 as soon as possible? IMO it makes sense as they need to build up a big enough install base before the PS3 really starts rolling.

Last edited by MikeB on 18-May-2008 at 03:21 PM.

@BrianK

Quote:

What are you talking about?

Example Microsoft in reply to NPD figures:

"For February's NPD reporting period, Xbox 360 remained in a supply constrained situation. The situation is improving and we are confident consumers will soon be able to find the Xbox 360 SKU they seek, in time for the launch of "Grand Theft Auto IV", which we expect to be one of the biggest titles of the year with huge impact on the Xbox 360 platform."

The 360 was in huge supply and 360 sales were slow, however on the PS3 front the popular 80GB backwards compatible PS3 wasn't. I expect many PS3 80GB MGS4 bundles to sell upcoming June.

@MikeB

Quote:

MikeB wrote: @Lou What are you talking about? Sequels to popular XBox games pushes XBox users to upgrade towards a 360. Microsoft did their best to release their sequels as fast as possible. I am going to see Indiana Jones 4 later this month, I have nothing against good sequels to blockbuster games and movies.

Mike, what are you talking about? Sony has had 2 generations of upgrading to the bigger and better successor. Did you even see the list of games I mentioned? No? Sony had, yes - HAD - more franchises to entice customers to stay with Sony. MS masterfully coerced Rockstar to go multi-platform.

If the GTA4 release proves anything though is that MSG4 can sell 4-5 million copies on just the PS3...now the question will be: is that enough for Konami to make them happy? Will MSG4 be a timed exclusive... Will Konami ignore another 5 million or more in sales on the 360 platform?

@Lou

Quote:

MS masterfully coerced Rockstar to go multi-platform.

GTA has always been a multi-platform franchise so far. GTA IV has been under production for many years and there were development kits for the 360 available well before there were mature PS3 development kits. So development was lead on the 360, I see nothing masterful about this. just common sense. GTA V development will likely be lead on the PS3, just because it makes sense to do so.

Quote:

Will MSG4 be a timed exclusive...

The current 360 has too many technical shortcomings for MGS4 to be ported.

Quote:

Sony had, yes - HAD - more franchises to entice customers to stay with Sony.

All the really big PS2 sequels are yet to come, it makes sense for Sony and partners to release them later during the PS3's lifecycle as then hardware costs will be more under control.

A iSupply report around launch claimed PS3 Components alone costed $850 around launch. If correct you still have to build the console and add a lot of additional marketing, R&D (a lot!), support, retailer share, etc, costs.

That's why the PS3 is really an amazing deal for consumers in terms of provided technology / retail price ratio. It's really a console build for the future. If they were produced and sold as fast as the Nintendo Wii it would have put Sony in danger as a company, IMO that's an important reason why it's good that the most anticipated PS2 sequels haven't hit early within the PS3's lifecycle and Sony experimented mainly with introducing new franchises until the costs ratios are more favourable. This also provides more time to adapt legacy game engines for the new technology.

Last edited by MikeB on 18-May-2008 at 04:27 PM.
Last edited by MikeB on 18-May-2008 at 04:26 PM.
Last edited by MikeB on 18-May-2008 at 04:25 PM.

@MikeB

Quote:

A small minority of 360 owners is even able to play online games (about a third or less, only about 66% has set up an account). Comparing this with the PS3, every PS3 owner with a proper internet connection is able to play lag-free online games

Every 360 owner with a proper internet connection is able to play online to. As for PS3 lag-free online. Sure when the inaccessible PS3 GTA servers are accessible. Or getting into unranked Resistance match problems. Or experiencing the online Warhawk issues. PS3 online isn't quite as error free and you'd seemingly imply.

Quote:

looking at the PSN content, even with Microsoft's headstart there's better content available on the PSN,

Not in the USA. Live is better content. Simply throw in the TV and Movies in both SD and HD options and Live trumps PSN. Live has better matchmaking, better ranking, more demos, more trailers, more game add-ons and more games to purchase. The only thing PSN has better is that head-head play is no charge.

I think the biggest 'problem' with live is that gold gives one head to head gameplay but not much more. Yeah the demos and trailers come on gold first but of course gold members download them to the internet so if you're a silver member you can still see the trailer even if your online account cannot. They need to differentiate Gold more.

@BrianK

Quote:

S3 online isn't quite as error free and you'd seemingly imply.

I didn't say that, but I haven't experienced any major issues so far. Lag free does not imply, error free. I played games like Motorstorm, Resistance: Fall of Man and Warhawk online and the games performed super solid for me with a maximum amount of players.

I haven't tried GTA IV online yet, but Rockstar recently released a patch which prevents the GameSpy servers to be overloaded. This also resulted into the game locking up for many people (needing to disable internet to play the game, now when connected online while starting the game the patch will be downloaded automatically), like I reported earlier.

Last edited by MikeB on 18-May-2008 at 06:16 PM.
Last edited by MikeB on 18-May-2008 at 06:15 PM.

@MikeB

Quote:

MikeB wrote: @Lou The current 360 has too many technical shortcomings for MGS4 to be ported.

The only short-coming I see is media size. In every other regard, the PS3 has not proven itself superior or atleast not apparently so. Leading development on the PS3 only means that the 360's graphical potential would be held back somewhat. My only proof is the games that exist. Until a game comes along to prove the contrary, that is what I will believe.

Quote:

All the really big PS2 sequels are yet to come, it makes sense for Sony and partners to release them later during the PS3's lifecycle as then hardware costs will be more under control.

The 360 is already matching the installed base of the Xbox after only 2½ years after it's launch. The Wii has already surpassed the Gamecube in 1½ years. I see alot of casual gaming PS2 owners switching to the Wii, not waiting for the PS3 to get cheaper... As a recent report shows they are still possibly losing $260 per console, Sony will be slow to lower the price, especially when they are keeping the PS2 on the market just to help offset PS3 loses.
If the rumors are true about the BluRay equipped 360, I see the momentum ending for Sony and swinging back to the 360. The Wii will mostly be unphased by this ofcourse...as will World of Warcraft.

Speaking of which, the next WoW expansion is due in the last quarter of this year...

@MikeB

Quote:

GTA V development will likely be lead on the PS3, just because it makes sense to do so.

1997 was GTA, 1999 was GTA II, 2001 was GTA III, a couple spin offs of III happened, and then in 2008 we got GTA IV. We know online content for GTA IV is coming this fall for the 360. Likely GTA V will be a couple of years out.

So does leading on the PS3 make sense? If GTAV is 2009 then yes.

GTA V in 2010 Then no. Develop on the PC with 6 and 8 core CPU and multiple dual core GPUs.

However, if Rockstar/EA's plans are Vice City/San Andreas type of spin offs from GTA IV then GTA V is even further out. Perhaps another 6 years (like between III and IV). If so then the PS3 would certainly not be the platform of choice, it'd more likely be the Xbox #3 or perhaps even Nintendo will step into high performance console game by that time. Well and there's Apple rumors.. So who knows by then but likely not the PS3.

@MikeB

Quote:

Amazing both you and Lou misread what I wrote above in a similar way! Who the hell is criticizing Microsoft for releasing sequels for the 360 as soon as possible? IMO it makes sense as they need to build up a big enough install base before the PS3 really starts rolling.

Ok, fair enough, my mistake.

Maybe it's just my perception, but I've always seen GTA as a PlayStation title. The longest and most successful period saw GTA3, Vice City and San Andreas released on PS2 for a limited period of exclusivity. GTA 1 never came out for N64, Saturn or Dreamcast, for example.

Completely off-topic, but GTA 1 was one of the few games I could run well under emulation on my beige PowerMac G3/266. Using RealPC I would play GTA in one corner of the screen, and have my TV card showing the TV in the other. This was when Macs were still beige and unfashionable, so this was a great thing to show my Windows using friends!

Chris

@MikeB

Quote:

The current 360 has too many technical shortcomings for MGS4 to be ported.

Besides Blu-Ray issue, define these "technical shortcomings".

Atm PS3 haven’t shown to be superior compared to X360.

_________________
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A new trailer with some commentary explaining the Quantum3 engine.
http://kotaku.com/5009499/the-conduit-about-damn-time
http://www.thewiire.com/news/1304/1/The_Conduit_Joins_the_Wii_Shooter_Ranks

Also:
Quote:

Contrary to a PlayStation blog post which suggested that PS3 exclusive FPS Haze ran at 720p, developer Free Radical has said that it natively runs at 576p, leaving the PS3 to upscale.

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10540&Itemid=53

I see a pattern here. The more complicated the game, the lower the resolution. Ofcourse, I mentioned this in the middle of the last thread before someone jumped down my throat about it with nothing to back it up...

It seems that with HDTV's that do some upscaling, you may see Wii games look closer to their "HD" counter parts in the future, especially when HD is 576p now... ROTFLMAO. Actually, doesn't the Wii do 576p in PAL territories?

But seriously, until I see "The Conduit" in action, take my above commentary with a grain of salt...
Edit: Nevermind, I just added the Kotaku link. The game looks like it delivers!

Last edited by Lou on 19-May-2008 at 01:02 PM.
Last edited by Lou on 19-May-2008 at 01:01 PM.
Last edited by Lou on 19-May-2008 at 12:29 PM.

@BrianK

Quote:

However, if Rockstar/EA's plans are Vice City/San Andreas type of spin offs from GTA IV then GTA V is even further out.

The San Andreas engine was more advanced than the GTA III engine, both games however were built around PS2 technology. I am referring to the next big GTA game, if it's called GTA: San Andreas 2 or GTA V is irrelevant to me. The timing of release has a lot to do with being built around 360 technology and having to port to the PS3 as well.

An alledged 6 to 8-core x86 PC would be nice to port the PS3 version to, however I think the PS3 will be the lead platform for a follow up. And the PC port will benefit from this as well in terms of multi-core efficiency.

Last edited by MikeB on 19-May-2008 at 01:19 PM.

@Hammer

Quote:

Besides Blu-Ray issue, define these "technical shortcomings".

Most importantly no default harddrive and far less horsepower.

Quote:

Atm PS3 haven’t shown to be superior compared to X360.

Despite the 360's development kit headstart, take a look at Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, Gran Turismo 5: Prologue, Ratchet & Clank: Tools of Destruction or even the cheap PSN title like Super Stardust HD.

@MikeB

Quote:

An alledged 6 to 8-core x86 PC would be nice to port the PS3 version to, however I think the PS3 will be the lead platform for a follow up. And the PC port will benefit from this as well in terms of multi-core efficiency.

I don't understand this comment, I think you you saying that PS3 and x86 8x multicore is more simular than XBox360 to x86 8x multicore?
Do you realise that the Cell processor is not similar to a (symmetric) multicore processor?
The Cell only has a single general purpose core. The others 8 core are semi special purpose. The Xenon used in the Xbox is much more simular to a multicore x86 processor. The Xenon also can run 2 threads per core for a total of 6 hardware threads.
The way you divide up code for a Cell would be quite different to a multicore processor where all the cores where general purpose. Whereas the difference between how to divide code for PowerPC vs x86 would be smaller even given extra cores.