@MikeB

Sony expected to post 1.1 Billion in losses.
http://www.gamesarefun.com/news.php?newsid=9225

...meanwhile the Wii save Christmas in the US and sells 3.25M in December...
http://www.edge-online.com/news/analyst-wii-sold-325m-dec

@Lou

Sony is still performing better than many other consumer electronics firms, I don't think the Wii pushes much for high definition upgrades or other tech upgrades like advanced audio setups. It's a nice toy, but IMO not what other major heavy employing consumer electronics companies really need to battle against recession. Nintendo itself is a very tiny employer (about 2% of Sony's workforce).

The GameCube user base was dominated by young children according to Nintendo's research, I think that's one important reason why many 3rd party games were not released for that platform. For many 3rd parties it just makes sense to support PC/PS3/360 as one big combined main target.

@MikeB

Quote:

It's a nice toy, but IMO not what other major heavy employing consumer electronics companies really need to battle against recession. Nintendo itself is a very tiny employer (about 2% of Sony's workforce).

Profits help battle against recession Mike and the Wii is a better profit center than the PS3 is hands down. Just because you don't like a product has nothing to do with how much money it can and does bring in.

Blu-ray movies cost too much in addition to the PS3 console. With the recession people will join Netflix in droves, they will continue to buy Xbox360 (if they want a "mature" console so they can use Netflix streaming as well and get in at a lower price point). If they don't rent movies via Netflix they will through itunes. If they buy movies it will still tend to be DVD because the video difference is not impressive enough yet to justify the cost difference.

Bottom line, Sony is in trouble. I'm a shareholder of Sony and I wish that was not the case, believe me.

Quote:

The GameCube user base was dominated by young children according to Nintendo's research, I think that's one important reason why many 3rd party games were not released for that platform. For many 3rd parties it just makes sense to support PC/PS3/360 as one big combined main target.

Young children are a great audience. Especially in the U.S. They aren't afraid to demand games from their parents. The parents are used to those games often costing as much as many top tier titles, or at least close. The production values can be much cheaper. Kids have short attention spans anyway and are not yet very sophisticated. Its hard to flop on a title there. Meanwhile look at a game like Haze. Expectations were very high, it was nearly universally panned. Budget was high, and it was a big flop.

Last edited by fairlanefastback on 13-Jan-2009 at 10:53 PM.

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@MikeB

Quote:

"It turned out to be a phenomenal year for Blu-ray," said Tom Adams of Adams Media Research. In the fourth quarter of 2008, which is only too important for tech companies, U.S. consumers bought up 28.6 million Blu-ray titles."

BD isn't a clear win for PS3, especially at current BD player costs. It's related, but that is not a direct association to PS3 success. (And I am not disagreeing with Dark Knight being a success for BD, either).

Quote:

The quoted CNET text seems far too offensive and unprofessional to me. The Amiga could have been cheaper if it was specced like an Atari ST at launch, personally I am glad the Amiga was specced and thus costed like an Amiga. Sony still isn't making money on PS3 hardware sales (certainly if you include Cell R&D and such), so it's not expensive from that perspective.

Product success, however, is measured by consumers. Additionally, someone can build what they believe is 'the ultimate product' (I see this all the time on software projects), but the end measurement remains in fact, if consumers purchase it or not. Relative to the Wii and 360, today, PS3 is not as successful at this time. This does not change because if you personally feel differently. This also doesn't mean this isn't able to change in the future, but right now, the facts remain as they are.

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@fairlanefastback

Quote:

Profits help battle against recession Mike and the Wii is a better profit center than the PS3 is hands down. Just because you don't like a product has nothing to do with how much money it can and does bring in.

FYI I like the Wii, I think it's an excellent console.

Just profits is IMO not enough, IMO Nintendo needs to employ more people for the money they are generating. A villa and mercedes for the CEO will not help the economy enough.

Quote:

Netflix streaming as well and get in at a lower price point

Netflix cuts out the middle man (retailer) and thus isn´t very good for the economy, besides that people don´t actually own the paid for content and it´s of far lower quality than BluRay. I don´t think it´s much of a direct competitor.

@MikeB

Quote:

Just profits is IMO not enough, IMO Nintendo needs to employ more people for the money they are generating. A villa and mercedes for the CEO will not help the economy enough.

In a recession cash is one of the most important assets you can have. When others with more debt and no cash falter then you can stay alive to either see the competition die or buy it (or a part of it) at a steep discount. Are you really arguing that Sony is better because they are suffering and faltering more due to their weaker position in this particular market?

Quote:

Netflix cuts out the middle man (retailer) and thus isn´t very good for the economy, besides that people don´t actually own the paid for content and it´s of far lower quality than BluRay. I don´t think it´s much of a direct competitor.

Depends on how one looks at it. People either spend the saved money somwhere else, helping another industry (and hence the economy), or they have more money to get out of debt more quickly, helping to fix a long term issue with the economy. Netflix profits help strength its stock price which helps people's portfolios as its a position held by many large mutual funds.

You can pretend that product superiority defines competitors. It does not. Its a very basic econonmic principal Mike. Your competition is anything that someone will buy in the place of your product for the same relative purpose. So if I rent Dark Knight on Netflix instead of buy on Blu-Ray Sony lost its cut of that potential sale to me. If I buy a Wii as the game system for the house it dosen't matter if the PS3 is "in another class". Bottom line in that scenario the Wii became the video game machine for the house, not the PS3.

I'm a good example of Sony's failure to reach consumers. I bought one BR disc since getting my P3. One. And thats only because I am big enough into Star Wars and because I figured as a stock holder I might as well at least support Sony with one BR disc purchase. Any other movies I either rent from Itunes or buy on regular DVD. BR disc is just too expensive to justify in most cases.

Last edited by fairlanefastback on 13-Jan-2009 at 11:24 PM.
Last edited by fairlanefastback on 13-Jan-2009 at 11:23 PM.
Last edited by fairlanefastback on 13-Jan-2009 at 11:18 PM.

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@wegster

Quote:

BD isn't a clear win for PS3, especially at current BD player costs. It's related, but that is not a direct association to PS3 success. (And I am not disagreeing with Dark Knight being a success for BD, either).

Blu-Ray movie compatibility in the PS3 is of great relevance to the market (and of course Sony). The HD format battle ended.

For some Blu-Ray movie playback may be just an extra (to be taken advantage of now or maybe in the future). However technically it's a big win for PS3 exclusives, for example Killzone 2 would have suffered a lot of technical sacrifices on DVD and not to forget disc scratch resistance is always a good bonus (just look at the 360 lawsuits).

Quote:

Relative to the Wii and 360, today, PS3 is not as successful at this time. This does not change because if you personally feel differently. This also doesn't mean this isn't able to change in the future, but right now, the facts remain as they are.

I think it depends on perspectives. There are long term and short term goals, of course I agree to recoup PS3 investments when the hardware costs are at break even point the PS3 needs to sell at PS2 like levels to recoup past investments. But for example past Cell R&D costs are not useless for a future after the PS3, a PS3 compatible PS4 will probably make use of more advanced Cell technology as well.

More important for me at this point is another perspective. Would I have wanted the Amiga to be specced like an AtariST in the past and sell twice as many units? The answer is simply: "NO!". If the PS3 would have been specced like a Wii and the console would have sold tenfold, would I be a PS3 owner today? "NO!" If my Mercedes would be like a tiny mediocre Japanese car, would I drive a Mercedes today because millions more people would drive one? Answer: "No!"

The PS3 performs well enough at this point to pave the way for an excellent long term future and the technology is there to produce the most impressive console games out there.

If AmigaOS4.x would gain 100,000 users within 2 years I would consider that to be a huge success. If Microsoft is able to sell only 1 million copies of Windows 7 I would consider that to be a huge flop. There are many different factors to take into account.

@fairlanefastback

Quote:

So if I rent Dark Knight on Netflix instead of buy on Blu-Ray

You can also rent the movie on Blu-Ray.

Quote:

BR disc is just too expensive to justify in most cases.

Blu-Ray rentals here cost just as much as DVD rentals. Usually you also get more and of better quality.

@MikeB

Quote:

MikeB wrote: @fairlanefastback Quote: So if I rent Dark Knight on Netflix instead of buy on Blu-Ray You can also rent the movie on Blu-Ray. Quote: BR disc is just too expensive to justify in most cases. Blu-Ray rentals here cost just as much as DVD rentals. Usually you also get more and of better quality.

Why would I want to bother traveling somewhere to get a Blu-Ray rental when:

1) I can rent a movie electronically on Itunes.

or

2) I can rent via Netflix either DVD or Blu-ray media where it is mailed to my door for a low monthly fee with no late fees? And BTW Netflix charges more in the U.S. for access to Blu-Ray rentals to compensate for the higher costs to get the BR media of the movies. Something many people will not bother taking them up on (including me)

And Sony makes no more money on whether I rent a Blu-ray from a brick and mortor store than if I rent it from Netflix. So what's your point?

Last edited by fairlanefastback on 13-Jan-2009 at 11:46 PM.
Last edited by fairlanefastback on 13-Jan-2009 at 11:44 PM.

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@fairlanefastback

I was referring to Netflix streaming. In other regards Netflix is just like many other rental services. I have three of them nearby, so I rather have a little walk, maybe buy some ice cream or popcorn.

@MikeB

Quote:

MikeB wrote: @fairlanefastback I was referring to Netflix streaming. In other regards Netflix is just like many other rental services. I have three of them nearby, so I rather have a little walk, maybe buy some ice cream or popcorn.

Thats nice for you, but what does this have to do with your big picture arguments?

Netflix streaming is an added feature. Its an extra, a cherry on top. The point is life is pretty grand if you can rent films on Itunes, play DVDs on your Xbox 360 and/or computer and stream Netflix to boot on your Xbox 360. Thats living well.

Blu-ray? Thats cool if you have a ton of extra cash. But thats not the average consumer, especially in a recession. Unless PS3 and Blu-ray players and Blu-ray movie discs can drop price point significantly Sony is the one in the danger zone.

I'm a tech-head who got a nice bonus that I spent on the PS3 frivolously. Thats nice and all, but thats not a good core consumer. And even as a tech-head here I am with a scant PS3 game library, buying some titles PS3 nearly out of pity for the box and only one Blu-ray movie. And for all that money I still need to have my original PS2 taking up space. Sony is in trouble dude, accept it. That dosen't mean they can't turn it around. But they need to change direction radically for that to happen.

Last edited by fairlanefastback on 13-Jan-2009 at 11:56 PM.
Last edited by fairlanefastback on 13-Jan-2009 at 11:54 PM.
Last edited by fairlanefastback on 13-Jan-2009 at 11:53 PM.

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@MikeB

Quote:

MikeB wrote: @wegster Quote: BD isn't a clear win for PS3, especially at current BD player costs. It's related, but that is not a direct association to PS3 success. (And I am not disagreeing with Dark Knight being a success for BD, either). Blu-Ray movie compatibility in the PS3 is of great relevance to the market (and of course Sony). The HD format battle ended. For some Blu-Ray movie playback may be just an extra (to be taken advantage of now or maybe in the future). However technically it's a big win for PS3 exclusives, for example Killzone 2 would have suffered a lot of technical sacrifices on DVD and not to forget disc scratch resistance is always a good bonus (just look at the 360 lawsuits).

You're mixing and matching here. BD was helpful in winning the next gen media format war, yes.
However, again back to consumers and $ are what determines success, and PS3 is in last place today, that changes little.

As of today, there have been few games that:
- required BD vs DVD
- BD alone made people spend the extra money

PS3 remains in last place today.

BD on the PS3 by all accounts, mine included, still remains slow to load, and yes, the 360 disk scratching issue is real, and not a warm and fuzzy feeling.

You hit a crossover point, however - at some future date, where the PS3 and BD sales are overcoming the losses by Sony, assuming PS3 ever gets out of last place while this generation is viable.

Other issues like how long the PS3 will remain viable while Nintendo and MS produce their next gen consoles, will play in to this, as well - basically, if PS3 will move out of last place, and hopefully making Sony a profit (I think it will at least make profit, unsure regarding getting out of last place), before the PS3 itself IS last gen.

'Bonuses,' today, have not resulted in PS3 gaining a dominant market share. Depending on the lifecycle of this gen, which is NOT going to be determined by Sony IMO, but likely forced by Nintendo and/or MS, determines whether or not the PS3 has a chance, and if those 'bonuses' become worthwhile for consumers to vote with their wallets. As of right now, they've voted in last place...but, I also acknowledge that 2009 is likely a pivotal year for Sony. If they can level the playing field sales-wise vs the 360, and retain some decent exclusives throughout '09 and into 2010, as well as releasing the next gen in a timely fashion as well (versus pretending the PS3 has a 10 year lifecycle), then I believe they have a chance for *real* longer term (as in, through this gen and into the next to be competitive). If not...end of Sony consoles of any relevance.

Quote:

Quote: Relative to the Wii and 360, today, PS3 is not as successful at this time. This does not change because if you personally feel differently. This also doesn't mean this isn't able to change in the future, but right now, the facts remain as they are. I think it depends on perspectives. There are long term and short term goals, of course I agree to recoup PS3 investments when the hardware costs are at break even point the PS3 needs to sell at PS2 like levels to recoup past investments. But for example past Cell R&D costs are not useless for a future after the PS3, a PS3 compatible PS4 will probably make use of more advanced Cell technology as well. More important for me at this point is another perspective. Would I have wanted the Amiga to be specced like an AtariST in the past and sell twice as many units? The answer is simply: "NO!". If the PS3 would have been specced like a Wii and the console would have sold tenfold, would I be a PS3 owner today? "NO!" If my Mercedes would be like a tiny mediocre Japanese car, would I drive a Mercedes today because millions more people would drive one? Answer: "No!" The PS3 performs well enough at this point to pave the way for an excellent long term future and the technology is there to produce the most impressive console games out there. If AmigaOS4.x would gain 100,000 users within 2 years I would consider that to be a huge success. If Microsoft is able to sell only 1 million copies of Windows 7 I would consider that to be a huge flop. There are many different factors to take into account.

[/quote]

Again, you're mixing perspectives. The Amiga was a technical success, but arguably, a business failure overall. Sony went from undisputed #1 console to a near has-been. This gen and the next determine if it's viable for Sony to remain in the game or not.

I'm not disputing there are technical advantages to the PS3 for some cases. I am disputing if they are enough to make a difference, or if those advantages are *desired* features for consumers, enough that they will buy the PS3 and make it move out of last place, for this gen and the next.

This remains to be seen. I think they *can* do it, but Sony has dropped the ball so many times at this point, they can also screw it up badly, and that will certainly have longer reaching repercussions if they fail to move the PS3 out of last place.

The relative portion comes in at the point at which 'are they making enough *profit* to remain in the business? Right now, I'd say the answer has been NO so far, but we'll see if Sony can change that in 2009.

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@MikeB

Quote:

Netflix cuts out the middle man (retailer) and thus isn´t very good for the economy, besides that people don´t actually own the paid for content and it´s of far lower quality than BluRay. I don´t think it´s much of a direct competitor.

Heh. It's good for the consumer, and a number of businesses, just not for outmoded video rental stores.

Next, will you say instead renting at raped prices from Sony on demand is somehow 'better' than via Netflix streaming?

Additionally, what makes you think HD content streamed by Netflix is any less HD than your precious BD discs? They do not yet have a compelling number of streamable HD movies, sadly, but it's coming, and many of us want to *watch our movies* and not waste time on useless 'extras', so it's on par, and same quality as BD.

Last edited by wegster on 14-Jan-2009 at 12:50 AM.

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@MikeB

Quote:

MikeB wrote: @Lou Sony is still performing better than many other consumer electronics firms, I don't think the Wii pushes much for high definition upgrades or other tech upgrades like advanced audio setups. It's a nice toy, but IMO not what other major heavy employing consumer electronics companies really need to battle against recession. Nintendo itself is a very tiny employer (about 2% of Sony's workforce).

Why hire more than you need just to lay them off before Christmas? I'd say Nintendo's workforce is more efficient, infact a study was done that says each Nintendo employee generates 2.4million dollars for the company. I guess each Sony employee loses them a few hunder thousand.

Quote:

The GameCube user base was dominated by young children according to Nintendo's research, I think that's one important reason why many 3rd party games were not released for that platform. For many 3rd parties it just makes sense to support PC/PS3/360 as one big combined main target.

Wrong, few developers understood the GC's architure just like few understand the Wii. Capcom had no problem selling 1.5M copies if RE4. Coincidentally, Capcom is pioneering Wii graphics with Monster Hunter 3 -tri.

Garbage in, garbage out:
With the exception of EA titles and select gems like Soul Caliber 2, most 3rd party ports for the GC were sub-par.

Exaclty how Wii ports started out. However, with the Wii's leading market share, publishers are contracting 'A' teams for Wii development at last.

@fairlanefastback

Quote:

Blu-ray? Thats cool if you have a ton of extra cash. But thats not the average consumer, especially in a recession. Unless PS3 and Blu-ray players and Blu-ray movie discs can drop price point significantly Sony is the one in the danger zone.

Blu-Ray did go cheaper this Christmas. Deals could be found for a $200 player +5 free movies. Another way to look at this is under $100 for the player + buy 5 movies. If you were up for a DVD player this would be an attractive offer. You get next gen at close to DVD price. However, this did little for the PS3. Low Blu-Ray players go against the PS3, IMO.

Quote:

Sony is in trouble dude, accept it. That dosen't mean they can't turn it around. But they need to change direction radically for that to happen.

I think Sony realizes they are in trouble. The first sign was when Kutagari committed career seppuku. The next sign was how quickly Sony pulled features to lower price on their PS3. Some Sony fans make fun of the Xbox for being so cheap. They forget quickly that the 360 was the console on the market that was able to sustain no price cuts the longest. Microsoft appears to have figured out how to make their console and make money. That's what the game is about. I think Sony knows this. I have no doubt we'll see a price cut on the PS3 this April (read new fiscal year for Sony). If we don't they are doomed to remain in 3rd place in 2009. With a cut they might just have a fighting chance. Microsoft knows this too. Recently they stated they are in no rush to create a 360 successor. Instead their focus is improving a market position stronger than their last outing.


@MikeB
PS3 increasing by 40% is impressive. When one considers the 360 pulled ahead by 1M consoles in Europe and 8M consoles world wide it's not so impressive. Being 7M behind the PS2 in the same # of weeks makes the Sony Fanboys now post about how well the PS3 is beating the PS1. I think they hope we'll ignore Sony is down more than 25% from last gen.

I understand you think Xbox Live sucks because of the Gold Fee. Microsoft selling $1Billion since 2005 on Live is nothing to sneeze at, IMO. You may like it more to have free. But, it appears that consumers think the Xbox services are worth spending money on.

PS3 Price-Cut -- Writing could NOT be clearer. You shouldn't need to be cornobbled. PS3 may cut prices in April that's a fail. Cuz Microsoft will wait until Christmas 09 and steal Sony's thunder again.

@Lou

Quote:

Why hire more than you need just to lay them off before Christmas? I'd say Nintendo's workforce is more efficient, infact a study was done that says each Nintendo employee generates 2.4million dollars for the company. I guess each Sony employee loses them a few hunder thousand.

:

Ok, I think that belongs on a t-shirt or something

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@BrianK

I'd be curious to know total Live sales/income versus what Sony has sold on PSN...any numbers out there? (for a fair comparison, it would ideally be content only, but then again, income *is* income..)

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@wegster

Quote:

- required BD vs DVD

A lot of PS3 exclusives take good advantage of Blu-Ray disc through higher quality assets.

Quote:

PS3 remains in last place today.

Taking equal time frames the PS3 is well ahead of the 360, this despite higher entry pricing and fewer of its most anticipated games on the market early on.

Quote:

The Amiga was a technical success, but arguably, a business failure overall.

Yes and the Amiga also had many more and in general far better games than the commercially far more successful Nintendo Entertainment System. The Amiga still was successful for various niche markets, like cable companies, movie studios, etc.

Sure Silicon Graphics machines sold far fewer units than for instance the Amiga, but was pretty successful. Everything is relative depending on aims. It cannot have been an aim for Sony to outsell what the Wii has sold, that would have costed them way too much money.

@MikeB

Jees, what a Sony fanboy you are eh?

Rude!

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@wegster

Quote:

Next, will you say instead renting at raped prices from Sony on demand is somehow 'better' than via Netflix streaming?

Netflix and Sony's video store are different, consumers buy actual ownership of the download. I am not claiming their video store makes a considerable positive impact on the economy.

Quote:

Additionally, what makes you think HD content streamed by Netflix is any less HD than your precious BD discs?

Most of their videos are sub-DVD quality, their HD movies even for optimal conditions are well below HDTV broadcast quality. There are a huge amount of complaints with regard to their streaming quality. Just use google if you don't believe me.

* 16 kbit/s – videophone quality (minimum necessary for a consumer-acceptable "talking head" picture)
* 128 – 384 kbit/s – business-oriented video conferencing system quality
* 1.25 Mbit/s – VCD quality
* 5 Mbit/s – DVD quality
* 15 Mbit/s – HDTV broadcasting quality
* 36 Mbit/s – HD DVD quality
* 54 Mbit/s – Blu-ray Disc quality