@MikeB

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MikeB wrote: June 2008 NPD (using a 5 weeks period): PS3 405,500 July 2008 NPD (using a 4 weeks period): PS3 225K There was and still is a shortage of 80 GB PS3 MGS4 bundles for the US.

And sadly Sony thinks upgrading the 40GB model to 80GB is going to drive those sales level back to June levels... I mean, the fact that THAT June 80GB model had PS2 B/C as well as all the extra ports had nothing to do with it at all...

@Lou

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The console’s jump in popularity – it sold 5,359 units the previous week - was no doubt fueled by the release of Namco Bandai’s Tales of Vesperia, which debuted at No4 in the software chart after selling 108,000 copies.

Blue Dragon had a bigger impact on hardware sales, 360 sales jumped 750% for Japan for that week, selling almost 40 thousand 360 consoles in the first week.

An impressive debut for this game, but of course not as impressive as MGS4's 480K+ first week sales for Japan.

@MikeB

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MikeB wrote: @Lou Quote: The console’s jump in popularity – it sold 5,359 units the previous week - was no doubt fueled by the release of Namco Bandai’s Tales of Vesperia, which debuted at No4 in the software chart after selling 108,000 copies. Blue Dragon had a bigger impact on hardware sales, 360 sales jumped 750% for Japan for that week, selling almost 40 thousand 360 consoles in the first week. An impressive debut for this game, but of course not as impressive as MGS4's 480K+ first week sales for Japan.

It's all relative Mike. With all the RPG announcements in Japan for the 360, it may signal the beginning of true acceptance of the console in the long term...

@Lou

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It's all relative Mike. With all the RPG announcements in Japan for the 360, it may signal the beginning of true acceptance of the console in the long term...

I think it's just a temporary effect like Blue Dragon.

Final Fantasty XIII matters the most for Japan, I expect a huge impact. It's said that FFX XIII will be PS3 exclusive for Japan, the PS3/360 US/European version are said to be release months later.

Versus is also claimed to be PS3 exclusive, if that's the case I think hardcore FFX fans worldwide will in general probably choose the PS3 over a 360. I find a 360 port interesting, it could be a title to highlight the differences of the PS3's and 360's technical specifications.

@MikeB

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Interesting to see the 360 price drop did little for July in the United States

360 US June weekly: ~44K, US July weekly ~51K: ~16% gain
PS3 US June weekly: ~81K, US July weekly ~56K: ~30% drop
Xbox 360 games accounted for four of the top ten games in July in the USA.

I suppose what you see as 'little' but I'd argue neither double digit gains or drops is little. Of course the big winner is still the Wii.

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Blue Dragon had a bigger impact on hardware sales, 360 sales jumped 750% for Japan for that week, selling almost 40 thousand 360 consoles in the first week.

Seems that Japan focused games are, surprise, popular in Japan.

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Final Fantasty XIII matters the most for Japan, I expect a huge impact. It's said that FFX XIII will be PS3 exclusive for Japan,

It appears Tawain is one area that's been announced in your absence.

Last edited by BrianK on 15-Aug-2008 at 03:38 PM.

@BrianK

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BrianK wrote: @MikeB Quote: Final Fantasty XIII matters the most for Japan, I expect a huge impact. It's said that FFX XIII will be PS3 exclusive for Japan, It appears Tawain is one area that's been announced in your absence.

And is playable on the Japanese console...so it will probably imported to hell and back...

@BrianK

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I suppose what you see as 'little' but I'd argue neither double digit gains or drops is little.

After the MGS4 spike (released on the 12th of June) a drop of PS3 sales was of course anticipated for July.

In any case for this year the PS3 already outsold the 360 by well over 300K for the United States according to the NPD, a price cut alone doesn't seem enough to put pressure on Sony and this may bode well for the all important upcoming holiday sales.

Taking equal timeframes the PS3 outsold the 360 worldwide by about 4 million units so far, this at a higher entry pricing, many fewer months of sales for various important regions and unlike is the case for the 360 regarding XBox hits many yet unreleased sequels to Sony's PS2 hits.

BTW, great that God of War 3 for the PS3 appears to be coming out this holiday season!

@Lou

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And is playable on the Japanese console...so it will probably imported to hell and back..

I am not sure about that, many Japanese 360 owners also seem to be PS3 owners. It may the case that the European/US 360 version does not include Japanese languaged story telling due to lack of disc space for such extras.

@MikeB

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MikeB wrote: @Lou Quote: And is playable on the Japanese console...so it will probably imported to hell and back.. I am not sure about that, many Japanese 360 owners also seem to be PS3 owners. It may the case that the European/US 360 version does not include Japanese languaged story telling due to lack of disc space for such extras.

It's called the "harddrive install option" which will eliminate the BR adavantage ... please note that even on the PS3, there are HDD installs...what was that BR storage advantage again?

By the way, did you know that a homebrew channel app on the Wii now allows it to play DVD's?

@Lou

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It's called the "harddrive install option" which will eliminate the BR adavantage ... please note that even on the PS3, there are HDD installs...what was that BR storage advantage again?

Dual layer Blu-Ray disc 50 GBs of data on a single dual layer disc. 6.8 GB of data on a dual layer 360 DVD. Mass audio is usually streamed of the disc, I don't think it's going to be installed on the 360's on average too small (~20 GB, minus OS and everything else installed) harddrive.

Producing two or more dual layer DVDs costs more money and is more cumbersome than producing a game on a scratch resistant dual layer Blu-Ray disc. I suspect the 360 version may well lack Japanese orientated content.

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By the way, did you know that a homebrew channel app on the Wii now allows it to play DVD's?

Nice, but the PS2 has this feature out of the box since many years ago.

@MikeB

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In any case for this year the PS3 already outsold the 360 by well over 300K for the United States according to the NPD, a price cut alone doesn't seem enough to put pressure on Sony and this may bode well for the all important upcoming holiday sales.

It appears that price cut produced nearly equal sales for the month. How the holiday sales go will definitely be a result of what games there are. I predict Wii to win the USA this Christmas leaving PS3/360 fight for #2.

300K isn't all that impressive. PS3 is down by 6.6M consoles in the USA. Assuming they can double to 600K by year end that's still 10 years to catch up. Next Gen will be on by then. PS3's problem -- USA. 360's problem - Europe and Asia. I doubt they'll fix Asia this gen. Europe could be doable this gen.

Though it's interesting to see the 360 Japan sales. Tales of Vesperia spiked the 360 for 2.5x the PS3 for 1 week. So the 360 can have legs. It's just unlikely that the 360 has enough Japan focused content to get back in the race.

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Taking equal timeframes the PS3 outsold the 360 worldwide by about 4 million units so far

IMO this isn't that impressive. Sony with the PS2 a clear #1 has fallen to arguing it's a stronger #2 then the previous #3 Microsoft Xbox entry's new machine. I guess that all important 2nd place is an important race for fallen #1. Sony -- we're good enough to not be #3 seems to be the PS3 fanboy mantra

Did you see the recent Blu-Ray sales? Not great. Turns out -- online movie/tv rentals is taking off strong and a threat to BR. Blu-Ray may well be the last throw of a physical movie media.

Last edited by BrianK on 15-Aug-2008 at 07:14 PM.

@BrianK

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PS3 is down by 6.6M consoles in the USA.

5.6 million according to NPD's figures. Over 300K still means the PS3 sold 20% faster than the 360 this year so far for the United States. For the 360 the US install base is larger than its install base for the rest of the world. For the PS3 Europe alone is already a bigger market than its US install base despite the delayed introduction.

Over 300K more sales is pretty good so far taking into account entry pricing, PS3 sales about doubled compared to last year so far for the US. It will be interesting to see how the upcoming holiday sales go, this period usually accounts for the bulk of year sales and may well show a greater gap.

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Did you see the recent Blu-Ray sales? Not great.

Great, compared to equal timeframes for VHS and so far slighly better than DVD performed looking at a similar timeframe. Of course Rome wasn't build in a day, it took DVD 6 years to overtake VHS in rentals for early adopting countries like the US and a similar timeframe is expected for Blu-Ray.

Last edited by MikeB on 15-Aug-2008 at 08:13 PM.

@BrianK

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10 years to catch up

5.6 million isn't that much, looking back at PS2 sales figures at the various entry pricing levels. Microsoft already released sequels to all its major XBox games (only Fable remaining and third party Star Wars), this year the 360 should hit XBox their install base level for the US. I think next year you will see slow 360 sales and faster PS3 sales than this year, so IMO you shouldn't extrapolate too much ahead.

Last edited by MikeB on 15-Aug-2008 at 08:23 PM.

@MikeB

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Over 300K more sales is pretty good so far taking into account entry pricing, PS3 sales about doubled compared to last year so far for the US. It will be interesting to see how the upcoming holiday sales go, this period usually accounts for the bulk of year sales and may well show a greater gap

It will be interesting. If the economy keeps in the dump the lower priced consoles Wii, will be more attractive to gaming.

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Great, compared to equal timeframes for VHS and so far slighly better than DVD performed looking at a similar timeframe

Bogus comparision point. VHS days were much less people and much less people into home video. Same reason, IMO, that comparing Atari 2600 sales to PS2 sales is a bit bogus. The markets aren't the same size or depth so a straight sales comparision proves to be artificial.

If anything due to the larger number of people and larger users wanting home video (more mature) market and a sales rate equal to VHS shows that Blu-Ray is less attractive to the average buyer. It's simply the larger market (more average buyers) in action.

Last edited by BrianK on 15-Aug-2008 at 09:13 PM.

@BrianK

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If the economy keeps in the dump the lower priced consoles Wii, will be more attractive to gaming.

Or the cheaper PS2 which has more and cheaper software available?! Sony last two fiscal years show the PS2 still sold nearly twice the amount the 360 sold (about 28 million).

In any case the total amount of money people are spending on consoles and games are currently going through the roof. Maybe a weaker economy can also be of a slight benefit in general, people seeking some distraction.

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Atari 2600 sales to PS2 sales is a bit bogus

Around the time of the PS1 gaming has been trying to suit a much wider audience.

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Bogus comparision point. VHS days were much less people and much less people into home video.

DVD also enjoyed the benefit of a bigger more mature market, it still took DVD the 6 years I mentioned earlier. A similar timeframe is being projected for Blu-Ray disc.

Of course the success of Blu-Ray as a movie format is closely connected to HDTV penetration. According to a recent study about 87% of PS3 owners watch Blu-Ray movies, so this seems to suggest a mature userbase with a remarkably high penetration of HDTV sets.

@ BrianK

Seems Blu-Ray so far this year tripled their movie sales:

"In a beneficial turn of events for the home entertainment industry, Blu-ray sales continue to rise drastically despite the staggering U.S. economy.

As DVD sales decline, Blu-ray has been filling in the gap, generating more than $200 million in the first half of 2008. This is in stark contrast to the same point last year, where Blu-ray earnings were less than 33% of current figures.

“We are trending 8% Blu-ray sales [per title], and at the end of the year, we will be between 10% and 12%," stated Mike Dunn of 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment.

Lori MacPherson, general manager for Walt Disney Studios Home Entertainment, North America contributed her thoughts.

“I think people are becoming pickier on what they spend their money on, but home entertainment always represents a good value. Thirty dollars for a Blu-ray movie that you can watch over and over again is still a great value,” she commented.

As Blu-ray production costs begin to drop, savings will be passed on to consumers and, in return, Blu-ray will take an even more prominent place in people's homes. With HDTV penetration higher than ever, Blu-ray may very well overtake DVD prior to 2012, the previously accepted prediction."

Last edited by MikeB on 15-Aug-2008 at 10:15 PM.

@MikeB

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Or the cheaper PS2 which has more and cheaper software available?! Sony last two fiscal years show the PS2 still sold nearly twice the amount the 360 sold (about 28 million).

And of course over twice the amount the PS3 sold. Perhaps Sony should cut the PS3 then? Too bad they dropped backwards compatibility maybe if they called it the PS2/pro those users wouldn't have purchase the Wii.

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also enjoyed the benefit of a bigger more mature market, it still took DVD the 6 years I mentioned earlier. A similar timeframe is being projected for Blu-Ray disc.

DVD replaced VHS in 6 years. BR to replace DVD in 6 years? why? I'd say the expanded market is offsetting a less interested marketplace and making this a break even. Clearly Blu-Ray will replace DVD. BR will likely be the last hurrah of a physical media as online content will replace it. Perhaps even faster then BR can grab a foot hold.

@MikeB

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As DVD sales decline, Blu-ray has been filling in the gap, generating more than $200 million in the first half of 2008. This is in stark contrast to the same point last year, where Blu-ray earnings were less than 33% of current figures

Not quite. From the figures I've seen elsewhere it appears DVD+Blu-Ray sales are down 5-7% compared to 2007.

I wouldn't think this is all that unpredictable. Blu-Ray would now pick up the HD-DVD fans as they move to the winning format. So that's double the sales. Then they'd pick up those adopters sitting in the wings waiting for the HD format to be choosen.

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30 dollars for a Blu-ray movie that you can watch over and over again is still a great value

The better value is renting which shows as rentals are up. Online rental is where the market is moving.

@MikeB

do you sell xboxes and Wii's in your store along with the PS3?

just wondering

_________________
"The system no longer works " -- Young Anakin Skywalker

@BrianK

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Clearly Blu-Ray will replace DVD. BR will likely be the last hurrah of a physical media as online content will replace it. Perhaps even faster then BR can grab a foot hold.

I am skeptical about that, sure I know big corps like Microsoft and Sony would love to cut out some middlemen to simplify things for them and to cut down costs, but I don't think online distribution will replace disc media for a very long time to come, due to a multitude of issues and limitations I addressed earlier.

Of course there's a market for Fast Food stores, supermarkets as well as restaurants. Similarly I think online distribution offers its own advantages in addition to other options, but will not really serve as a full replacement for most consumers.

@ Interesting

Sorry, not selling my PS3, nor a potential Wii in the future. I already sold my 360 a long time ago.

Last edited by MikeB on 16-Aug-2008 at 09:37 PM.