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Poster | Thread | billt
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Re: Reality check Posted on 19-Dec-2006 16:43:02
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Elite Member  |
Joined: 24-Oct-2003 Posts: 3205
From: Maryland, USA | | |
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| @falemagn
Quote:
So the answer is nobody, then. Nobody wants and needs AOS4 outside of the few people around here.
Now tell me, is this a viable business? |
I don't know what Hyperion's goals for OS4 are. I don't know how big of a market is required to meet those goals. I dont' know if they have approached potential customers to market it. I don't know if those custmers have been interested or not. If any were interested, I don't know if that is enough of a market to satisfy Hyperion's goals. I don't know if Hyperion is waiting to actively market their product until it's released. They've hinted that there's no sense in releasing or marketing OS4 until there's buyable hardware to run it on, but I don't know if that means definitively that they are waiting for hardware before they market to other system and/or application vendors.
We do know that it would be quite a challenge to "revive" AmigaOS. Based on your comments, I assume that you believe the challenge is not worth the time or energy or money, even if one is capable. Based on the actions of Hyperion, it appears they believe they can do what they would like to do with it. If you can tell the rest of us exactly and precisely what Hyperion's goals are, perhaps we can all begin forming our own opinions of how likely we believe Hyperion is to achieve them.
Is anyone outside of amiga forums publically known to be excited about OS4? Not that you or I know of. But I accept that I don't know EVERYTHING. I am not the central repository for any and all knowledge that is, ever has been, and ever will be known. I was quite suprised when Hyperion made the Smith's Aerospace announcement regarding the 3d drivers. Someone, a relatively big company from what I understand, with no known obsession with Amiga or companies involved with Amiga things, chose an Amiga-related software developer to do ATI drivers instead of choosing ATI themselves, and instead of choosing a more well-known 3rd party such as Apple, when both alternatives probably have a longer history of working with ATI chips and thus more experience. I seriously did not see anything like that coming. I wasn't "in the know". I did not have insider info. I hadn't seen any rumors or hints anywhere. I learned about it from the same public announcement everyone else here did. Considering I had not even the earliest twinge of an inkling that could have grown, evolved, and matured into a thought, belief or knowledge of that situation before it was announced publically, I choose to believe that it is possible for this to happen again, perhaps with a larger portion of OS4, perhaps even with the entire thing. Wham! Out of nowhere, an announcement like that could possibly come, taking everyone here by complete suprise to the degree that someone sneaking up behind us and smaking us upside the head with a 2x4 board might suprise many of us. I don't expect that to happen any more than I expected the Smith's 3d thing, which was not at all, but I do choose to believe in possibilities until the powers that be officially throw in the towel and end the OS4 development. Only if and when that happens will I KNOW that you are undeniably correct that it is defined to be a not viable market.
I officially declare that I believe neither "side" of this debate. I do not believe absolutely that there is no possibility of a viable market to meet Hyperion's goals. I also do not believe absolutely that there is a viable market to meet Hyperion's goals. I choose "D: none of the above". I DO choose to believe that both are possible, but neither is yet written in stone so as to be unchangable or unavoidable.
I do not believe I am qualified to say if there is a viable market or not. I do not believe I know enough, and that I can neither agree with you or disagree with you on this.
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Just because we don't know the results of such deliberations publically doesn't mean those deliberations never happened. |
It doesn't mean to opposite either, though, and if facts mean anything at all, the future doesn't look rosy. |
Maybe we just come from different enough cultures that we make different default assumptions. By default, I assumt that people in a business will sit down and think about what they're going to do before they actually do it, and if they realize it's a terrible decision then they won't do that, and I'd ask for proof that they were blatantly negligent before I believe that. I believe that anyone who does act negligently will not be in the business of being a businessperson for very long. It appears that you make the opposite default assumption, and believe that no business people ever think about what they are going to do before doing anything, and you appear to be asking for proof that business people have ever done any due dillegence before you believe that they did. I'm sorry but I just don't share that concept of the universe. I cannot prove to you that Hyperion did due dilligence before signing any contracts, and you cannot prove that they were completely ignorant of the world of business when they signed those contracts. Both of us are ignorant on what actually happens inside Hyperion.
On your secondary point there, no the future does not look rosy for anything Amiga. It hasn't looked rosy for a very long time, since before Hyperion took the reigns on OS4. Do you see a light at the end of the tunnel, or do you see the head lamp on a train about to splatter us into a bloody goo all over the place? I've been pondering that for some time, but it seems the tunnel is a very long one and it's taking forever to discover the definitive answer. Apparently a number of people are content to continue waiting it out, or else this site would be a ghost town.
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I'd assume that by getting involved in a project like this you've got to have pretty damn clear ideas about whether and when you're going to make a profit from your work. |
Oh, wait. I thought you wanted proof that Hyperion did any due dilligence in that, based on the previous quote carrying that tone to it. Do you believe that Hyperion did any thinking whatsoever before taking on the OS4 project, or do you believe they were as ignorant as possible?Last edited by billt on 19-Dec-2006 at 04:49 PM.
_________________ All glory to the Hypnotoad! |
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| | jkirk
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Re: Reality check Posted on 19-Dec-2006 17:39:38
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Elite Member  |
Joined: 28-Jan-2005 Posts: 3349
From: Georgia (usa) | | |
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| @falemagn
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So the answer is nobody, then. Nobody wants and needs AOS4 outside of the few people around here. |
in other words nobody wants/needs anything until you create the want /need in advertising. aka pointless topic. as os4 is now it is not ready for a marketing strategy. why market an os that is not ready or available.
case in point soft drinks. who needs/wants a new flavor soft drink? answer? nobody. that is until the marketing blitz starts. they then create a demand for the product causing sales to increase. afterwards the product either lives up to the hype or dies. we are nowhere near a point to debate the marketability of os4 and until we get there this topic is pointless.
btw let me point out one other error in your logic
nobody need/wants linux except the few that use it nobody needs/wants windows except the thousands of supporters nobody needs/wants a pickup truck except users of pickup trucks do you see where i am getting at? you leave out a products supporters/users and of course nobody else will need that product.Last edited by jkirk on 19-Dec-2006 at 05:45 PM.
_________________ Win•dows: n. A thirty-two bit extension and graphical shell to a sixteen-bit patch to an eight-bit operating system originally coded for a four-bit microprocessor which was written by a two-bit company that can't stand one bit of competition. |
| Status: Offline |
| | billt
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Re: Reality check Posted on 19-Dec-2006 18:05:50
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Elite Member  |
Joined: 24-Oct-2003 Posts: 3205
From: Maryland, USA | | |
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| @jkirk
Quote:
case in point soft drinks. who needs/wants a new flavor soft drink? answer? nobody. that is until the marketing blitz starts. they then create a demand for the product causing sales to increase. afterwards the product either lives up to the hype or dies. |
Yea, and they do some weird stuff with sodas too. I liked the clear Pepsi, no staining your teeth. I hated Pepsi Blue and Pitch Black Moutain Dew, both of those tasted like bad cough syrup. Does anyone demand, in the lack of such a product, Pepsi Blue or MD Pitch Black until someone creates them? Or do the companies decide to create these things, and then when its done try to convince people to buy it? Perhaps we are somewhere between those two states._________________ All glory to the Hypnotoad! |
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| | NutsAboutAmiga
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Re: Reality check Posted on 19-Dec-2006 18:18:03
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Elite Member  |
Joined: 9-Jun-2004 Posts: 12987
From: Norway | | |
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| @opi
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Simple. Poster, who wrote prev pice of post sugested that people all over the world are using OS that are alternative to Windows. OK. No problem with that. But if you're placing Solaris, MacOSX, QNX and Linux in same line as C64 and AOS4 you'll get wrong conclusions. |
I bevies are that AmigaOS4 has best impact on the user market (geek/multimedia), the professional market that requires and number of tools designed for specific task as well common office tools, there is no hope for AmigaOS in the near future, even MacOSX has problems in most of that segments in the business market.
* It’s individual what you need an operating system for, that’s way there exist so many operating systems.
* It’s individual what you expect of your operating system, * It’s Individual how you like to use it.
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I have a tool that helps me with a hobby but in hands of pro it can be used to do Real Stuff. (Linux, QNX, Solaris, MacOSX and Windows can be used like that) |
Sound like you have Amiga500 mentality of Amiga, so you think that you can’t use AmigaOS do advanced scripting, web hosting, file shearing, software development, painting or some other task? Well you’re wrong about that.
You think you need Windows computer because that’s what every one uses?
I tell you what you only need a computer to do the work you need it for, any thing you do not use computer for, you have no need for, for example how many of the features of ms-word do you use? I bet it close to 2%, so way on earth to you need monster like word to write a few letters?
Last edited by NutsAboutAmiga on 19-Dec-2006 at 06:39 PM.
_________________ http://lifeofliveforit.blogspot.no/ Facebook::LiveForIt Software for AmigaOS |
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| | NutsAboutAmiga
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Re: Reality check Posted on 19-Dec-2006 18:23:48
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Elite Member  |
Joined: 9-Jun-2004 Posts: 12987
From: Norway | | |
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| | falemagn
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Re: Reality check Posted on 19-Dec-2006 19:16:24
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Super Member  |
Joined: 24-Nov-2003 Posts: 1126
From: Italy | | |
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| @billt & jkirk
Guys, what to say... comparing operating systems with sodas? Yeah, I could never have had a better idea myself!
But even so, ever heard of market research? Do you really think someone someday wakes up and screams "Idea! Let's make a new drink and a huge marketing campaign, it will surely sell!"?
jkirk, by your reasoning it sounds like just about anything can be made a profitable business as long as it's maketed correctly. It's hard to not come across as arrogant here, but that reasoning has the word "naive" stamped all over it.
There are so many variables to take into account that it cannot possibly be so simple. What's certain, though, is that you need to identify your target first, not after your product is made. Talk to about anybody in the field and you'll be told that actually the product is made around the decisions that the marketing department takes.
Given the above, it's true that some products are sold by creating the need for them, but that works by 1) giving them away almost for free and 2) making huge marketing campaigns and even then it may be a huge flop. Mobile phones with embedded TV's come to mind.
Bill, as for your reasoning which can basically be reduced to "I don't know and cannot know and perhaps don't even want to know": that's your line of reasoning and you're entitled to it, just like I'm entitled to mine, which is that on the basis of what we know we can make informed guesses.
What we can't guess we can ask, and given that I've asked and got as answer "will not tell you" I cannot but not care anymore. I don't think we're ever going to agree about this anyway. _________________
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| | billt
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Re: Reality check Posted on 19-Dec-2006 21:27:11
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Elite Member  |
Joined: 24-Oct-2003 Posts: 3205
From: Maryland, USA | | |
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| @falemagn
Quote:
Bill, as for your reasoning which can basically be reduced to "I don't know and cannot know and perhaps don't even want to know": that's your line of reasoning and you're entitled to it, just like I'm entitled to mine, which is that on the basis of what we know we can make informed guesses. |
I never said I don't want to know. But I can't expect to know everything going on inside a company that I'm not part of. That would be unreasonable.
You are entitled to your opinion, yes. But your comments indicate you are extremely confident that Hyperion never once considered how to, or who to sell their product to before they began work on it. Yes, companies and businesses should have a good idea of how to make money on something they are putting time and money into. But how do you seem to certain that Hyperion never bothered to think about that? Maybe due to delays things changed and they then rethought those things and then started talking about embedded space applications?
I'd just like to know why you are qualified to say that Hyperion should have done that (and yes, they should have), while indicating that they did not do those things (how do you know that). I'd like to know why you are qualified to know that the possible market, after being actively marketed to, cannot satisfy Hyperion's goals (do you know precisely what those goals even are). I'd like to know why you, who I do not believe is involved with Hyperion's business, are more qualified to talk about Hyperion's internal workings than people who do work with Hyperion. For me to give in and flat out agree with you that the business is not viable, I need to believe that you know what Hyperion knows, what they have thought about, what they have done, and who they have talked to.
I do not believe that you know those things, I believe you are guessing, assuming, and estimating without having nearly as much detailed knowledge as you try to come across as having._________________ All glory to the Hypnotoad! |
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| | Yo
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Re: Reality check Posted on 20-Dec-2006 0:07:14
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Team Member  |
Joined: 8-Oct-2004 Posts: 2043
From: France, on an ADSL line | | |
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| @billt
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@falemagn I do not believe that you know those things, I believe you are guessing, assuming, and estimating without having nearly as much detailed knowledge as you try to come across as having. |
But that goes for EVERYBODY else as well, doesn't it......?
Hmmmmmmmmmm?  _________________ ¤¤ Official Hyperion Zealot ¤¤
(No, I didn't type that with a straight face.) |
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| | Tomas
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Re: Reality check Posted on 20-Dec-2006 2:40:18
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Elite Member  |
Joined: 25-Jul-2003 Posts: 4286
From: Unknown | | |
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| @Rogue
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Rogue wrote: @falemagn
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Or what about those comments that went along the lines of "AmigaOS4 will not ship this year, nor the next one, nor the next next one..." |
*shrugs* poop happens. The same happened to Vista, so what? |
The problem is that this has happened again and again... A comment is made about OS4 being available soon and then we hear nothing more about the release until months later where a similar comment is made.. I read about it going to be released this summer as well, previous Christmas and so on... Now it seems like nothing will happen this Christmas either. |
| Status: Offline |
| | billt
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Re: Reality check Posted on 20-Dec-2006 3:15:27
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Elite Member  |
Joined: 24-Oct-2003 Posts: 3205
From: Maryland, USA | | |
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| @Yo
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But that goes for EVERYBODY else as well, doesn't it......? |
Indeed. At least I'm willing to admit I don't know everything, that other people know certain things I don't, that I'm an idiot, etc. _________________ All glory to the Hypnotoad! |
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| | Samwel
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Re: Reality check Posted on 20-Dec-2006 4:34:57
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Elite Member  |
Joined: 7-Apr-2004 Posts: 3404
From: Sweden | | |
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| @Yo
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But that goes for EVERYBODY else as well, doesn't it......?
Hmmmmmmmmmm? 
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Does it? Seems there are alot of people knowing (for a fact they say) alot of stuff about Amiga Inc, Hyperion, Genesi and whatever.. If Amiga Inc never speaks to anyone, how do people know what they want or are doing? That's a question I'd like to know the answer to. 
_________________ /Harry
[SOLD] µA1-C - 750GX 800MHz - 512MB - Antec Aria case
Avatar by HNL_DK! |
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| | jkirk
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Re: Reality check Posted on 20-Dec-2006 10:54:01
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Elite Member  |
Joined: 28-Jan-2005 Posts: 3349
From: Georgia (usa) | | |
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| @falemagn
Quote:
But even so, ever heard of market research? Do you really think someone someday wakes up and screams "Idea! Let's make a new drink and a huge marketing campaign, it will surely sell!"? |
in some cases, yes. in others, no. market research is a guideline to determine the possibility of a new product being usable/popular. market research is why we don't have xerox computers in our home(as they felt there was no market for them.) market research is well and fine but it is rarely the last word on something.
btw we have great market research that people are willing to buy water
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jkirk, by your reasoning it sounds like just about anything can be made a profitable business as long as it's maketed correctly. It's hard to not come across as arrogant here, but that reasoning has the word "naive" stamped all over it. |
did i? let's see.
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they then create a demand for the product causing sales to increase. afterwards the product either lives up to the hype or dies. |
yep must have been what i said
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What's certain, though, is that you need to identify your target first, not after your product is made. |
true enough since you have more info than us apparently. what are they targeting? or are you assuming they don't have a target audience.
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Given the above, it's true that some products are sold by creating the need for them, but that works by 1) giving them away almost for free and 2) making huge marketing campaigns and even then it may be a huge flop. Mobile phones with embedded TV's come to mind. |
true enough see my quoted statement above.
oh giving something away free is one marketing strategy NOT the only one.Last edited by jkirk on 20-Dec-2006 at 02:03 PM. Last edited by jkirk on 20-Dec-2006 at 01:17 PM. Last edited by jkirk on 20-Dec-2006 at 01:15 PM. Last edited by jkirk on 20-Dec-2006 at 10:55 AM.
_________________ Win•dows: n. A thirty-two bit extension and graphical shell to a sixteen-bit patch to an eight-bit operating system originally coded for a four-bit microprocessor which was written by a two-bit company that can't stand one bit of competition. |
| Status: Offline |
| | opi
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Re: Reality check Posted on 20-Dec-2006 14:53:20
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Team Member  |
Joined: 2-Mar-2005 Posts: 2752
From: Poland | | |
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| @NutsAboutAmiga
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so you think that you can’t use AmigaOS do advanced scripting, web hosting, file shearing, software development, painting or some other task? |
Advanced scripting? What's that?
Web hosting? No.
File sharing? I don't know, I don't "share files" aka P2P
Software development? For AmigaOS -- yes. For general public -- no.
Painting? A XMas card for a mom -- yes. A high-res, high DPI work on few dozen of layers with color separation ready for printout? No.
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Well you’re wrong about that. |
OK, I'm not going argue with you over that. 
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You think you need Windows computer because that’s what every one uses? |
I have few computers. I have zero Windows running computers. I just got my Efika. Where did I said Windows is needed?
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tell you what you only need a computer to do the work you need it for |
I need computer to do whatever I need. *miga computers won't cut. But I love using hobby OSes. You can bet I throw MorphOS at Efika as soon as it would be released for general public.
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many of the features of ms-word do you use? |
Big, fat zero. I don't need Word.
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I love how one can just throw some random number as statistic. 
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so way on earth to you need monster like word to write a few letters? |
I have no idea.
Also, I have no idea what are arguing about here._________________ OpenWindows Initiative. Port PS3 hardware to bananas. For free. Join today and receive expired $50 cupon from AI! |
| Status: Offline |
| | NutsAboutAmiga
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Re: Reality check Posted on 20-Dec-2006 16:22:56
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Elite Member  |
Joined: 9-Jun-2004 Posts: 12987
From: Norway | | |
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| @opi
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Advanced scripting? What's that?
Web hosting? No.
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Every tried apache on AmigaOS4?
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File sharing? I don't know, I don't "share files" aka P2P |
Thinking about samba or http file sharing.
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Software development? For AmigaOS -- yes. For general public -- no. |
How about SDL Basic, Pearl or Ruby, or maybe you like Pascal, ARexx or C/C++
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Painting? A XMas card for a mom -- yes. A high-res, high DPI work on few dozen of layers with color separation ready for printout? No. |
Ever tried Gimp / X11 or TVPaint on AmigaOS4?
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You can bet I throw MorphOS at Efika as soon as it would be released for general public. |
Don’t really interest me I think it’s under powered, and my understanding is that it has ram mounted on it, so you can upgrade it.
So how are you going to play memory hungry game like Quake 3 on it? Now let’s imagine Doom3 if ever comes to MorphOS.
Last edited by NutsAboutAmiga on 20-Dec-2006 at 04:27 PM.
_________________ http://lifeofliveforit.blogspot.no/ Facebook::LiveForIt Software for AmigaOS |
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| | Zardoz
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Re: Reality check Posted on 20-Dec-2006 17:53:43
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Team Member  |
Joined: 13-Mar-2003 Posts: 4261
From: Unknown | | |
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| @NutsAboutAmiga
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Every tried apache on AmigaOS4? |
You wouldn't want to host anything on a machine that doesn't have even the most basic features of a server OS, like multiuser support, let alone memory protection, which is needed not only for stability but also to avoid compromising the system with any stupidly little exploit the webserver would have.
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Thinking about samba or http file sharing. |
Setting up samba on the Amiga is not for the average user and neither is configuring Apache by hand.
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Ever tried Gimp / X11 or TVPaint on AmigaOS4? |
Hm, so, you would use the fact that it runs a Unix program on X11 as a selling point for an OS? TVPaint is nice but hardly applies for the features he asked for.
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Don’t really interest me I think it’s under powered, and my understanding is that it has ram mounted on it, so you can upgrade it. So how are you going to play memory hungry game like Quake 3 on it? Now let’s imagine Doom3 if ever comes to MorphOS. |
The CPU isn't fast enough for anything like that anyway. That is not the target market of the Efika or boards like the Sam440. _________________
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| | _ThEcRoW
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Re: Reality check Posted on 20-Dec-2006 22:19:27
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Cult Member  |
Joined: 12-Jan-2005 Posts: 836
From: Murcia (Spain) | | |
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| @NutsAboutAmiga
You think you can play doom3 on an A1? _________________ Amiga 1200 desktop. Apollo 030/50 Mhz 8mb ram + ClassicWB + Wb 3.1 Amiga 500 + ACA500plus 8mb + 30gb CF Raspberry Pi 3b+ and Amibian 1.4 Mac Mini G4 1GB Ram with the butterfly!! |
| Status: Offline |
| | Samwel
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Re: Reality check Posted on 21-Dec-2006 1:14:45
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Elite Member  |
Joined: 7-Apr-2004 Posts: 3404
From: Sweden | | |
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| @_ThEcRoW
Actually yes, when full OpenGL hardware acceleration arrives for OS4. Also 3D drivers for Radeon 9800 and up might be needed. But should work. Maybe not fast like a modern PC, but that was not point I think. 
_________________ /Harry
[SOLD] µA1-C - 750GX 800MHz - 512MB - Antec Aria case
Avatar by HNL_DK! |
| Status: Offline |
| | billt
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Re: Reality check Posted on 21-Dec-2006 15:15:01
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Elite Member  |
Joined: 24-Oct-2003 Posts: 3205
From: Maryland, USA | | |
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| @falemagn
Quote:
But even so, ever heard of market research? Do you really think someone someday wakes up and screams "Idea! Let's make a new drink and a huge marketing campaign, it will surely sell!"? |
Ever heard of the concept of "test markets"? Small areas which are chosen to find out if a new product invention is accepted and thus worth marketing on a larger scale? That's also part of market research, but happens after the product already exists._________________ All glory to the Hypnotoad! |
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