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K-L 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 25-Jan-2019 7:42:34
#61 ]
Super Member
Joined: 3-Mar-2006
Posts: 1381
From: Oullins, France

@ferrels

True indeed, I should ignore you but contradiction is also good for debate.

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bhabbott 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 25-Jan-2019 8:04:49
#62 ]
Member
Joined: 6-Jun-2018
Posts: 35
From: Unknown

Quote:

ferrels wrote:
There's nothing to argue about in regard to Aminet's download numbers. The numbers are inaccurate
As I said, we can argue about the 'accuracy' of those numbers, but you can't simply dismiss them out of hand.

Quote:
The fact that you want to keep pointing to those inaccurate download numbers of software packages and equate them somehow to total sales of OS 3.1.4 is ludicrous at best.
Especially since I never did so. I was purely addressing the evidence-free claim that there are 'not a lot of active users out there'.

The only reference I made to OS 3.1.4 was that Vampire now supports it. Why they would bother when there 'hasn't been any real resurgence in 68K computing to speak of' is a mystery. But then you seem to think that Apollo Team might be lying about their sales figures anyway, so I guess it makes sense that you wouldn't consider it significant.

Quote:
They are completely unrelated and there's nothing to be dismissed. Just go to Aminet and check them again yourself....oh, but that would defeat your entire argument
I am am quite willing to be shown how the Aminet figures relate. What I won't accept is being told (without evidence) that they are 'inaccurate', and therefore can be ignored. And I certainly won't accept your alternative estimate based on nothing but gut feelings.

Quote:
so I don't expect you to do that and damage your fragile ego.
This has nothing to do with my ego. I just don't like to see bare assertions presented as fact.

Quote:
Unsurprisingly, you left out the factual info when you quoted me as well, so I'll do you the favor of posting it again:

when I search for WormWars.lha on Aminet, I get a number of 5401 downloads, not the 6665 that you're getting.
'Unsurprisingly'? Yeah, I don't generally quote entire posts verbatim, - but your implication as to my motives is offensive.

That two different pages show different download figures does not prove that they are 'inaccurate', just that some assumptions about them may be wrong (it might be explained by the fact that each package also has a 'readme' which can be downloaded separately). And it certainly doesn't prove that your lowball 'guesstimates' are more reliable. Once the algorithms are worked out, I bet the download figures will be shown to be quite accurate (why wouldn't they be?).

Quote:
You also seem to be totally ignorant of the fact that the download counters for some of those packages go back well over 20 years,
More straw men. Nowhere did I ever suggest or imply that download counters don't tally the total from when a package was uploaded. It has been asserted that 'different versions' of a package share the same counters. So far I haven't seen any evidence for this claim, but I am not rejecting it. I welcome any data and/or analysis that gives us a better understanding of what the figures mean.

Quote:
...long before 3.1.4 existed, and long after most Amiga users moved on and left the Amiga behind.
Once again, I am not making any claims about a possible relationship between OS 3.1.4 and historical Aminet downloads. Why would I? Since OS 3.1.4 has only been out a few months, it wouldn't make any sense to do so.

Quote:
And as rzookol pointed out, the inaccurate download number Aminet is using spans several versions of the same package.
And if it did, so what? You seem to think that completely invalidates the figures, allowing you to insert you own 'guesstimates' without a shred of evidence. Well some people might fall for that, but it won't fly with me.

Quote:
Sorry, but Vampire sales numbers mean little-to-nothing in terms of OS 3.1.4 sales.
Here we go again - I never said they did! What I am saying is that fronting up with the cash to buy a Vampire (after possibly waiting several months to get one) indicates a likely 'active' user, and the sales figures are evidence that there are many of them.

But of course...

Quote:
Even if we are to accept that the 4000 number of total Vampire sales is accurate,
This is the way the World works now - when you don't like a fact, just call it 'fake news' and it goes away! Why would you not accept the 4000 figure?

Quote:
You make it sound as if there are thousands of prospective buyers of OS 3.1.4...
That would depend on how well it was marketed. I do know that at least one person - me- is waiting until the dust settles before they decide (and I was this close to 'pulling the trigger' on it when things starting going south).

Quote:
BTW, Vampires were CoffinOS, 3.1/3.5/3.9 ready long before OS 3.1.4 arrived! Most owners will stick with those choices.
AFAIK CoffinOS is a separate download., and I bet that at over 30GB a fair number of Vampire owners - like me - didn't bother. But hey, I am willing to be proved wrong. Please present your evidence that 'most owners will stick with those choices'.

Anyway it's irrelevant, because I never said that Vampire owners would be the first to buy OS 3.1.4!

Quote:
Vampire sales won't be increasing over time either. Sales will peak with the standalone version and then there will be a steep decline.
Oh God, another assertion without evidence!

My personal gut feeling (which is just a feeling) is that after an initial burst Vampire 4 standalone sales will be disappointing, but that versions to fit into existing Amigas will take off. There are a lot of stock A500's and A1200's (also many A600s and CD32's) out there that desperately need a performance boost. I am lucky enough to have a Blizzard 1230IV in my A1200, but I wouldn't buy one today if a Vampire was available.

Meanwhile, many people are buying or building lower powered accelerator cards for all Amiga models. I recently bought a second-hand monitor off TradeMe, and since the seller was local I picked it up from his house. That was when I discovered he had several Amigas, including a CD32 that he is making a TF530 for. Both of us had no idea that the other existed, even though we live only a few blocks away from each other! I bet there are many Amiga users out there who's interest has been rekindled by all the new developments going on. And that means they are 'active' users, who may be interested in getting an official incremental upgrade for their OS.

I don't have hard numbers, but clearly over the last few years there has been a huge revival of interest in 'retro' computing in general and the Amiga specifically. With all the stuff that is coming out for the Amiga now, I don't think this interest is going away soon. If anything is holding us back it's all the infighting and legal wrangles that are preventing us from getting the stuff we want. Just like in 1994!

Last edited by bhabbott on 25-Jan-2019 at 08:12 AM.

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ferrels 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 25-Jan-2019 17:20:40
#63 ]
Cult Member
Joined: 20-Oct-2005
Posts: 849
From: Arizona

@bhabbott

Quote:
As I said, we can argue about the 'accuracy' of those numbers, but you can't simply dismiss them out of hand.


No, we can't, and I won't argue this matter further because, again, I've shown that the numbers from Aminet are inaccurate using Aminet's own search engine using their own data. If you feel the need to argue, search out your partner and have at it.

Saying that I dismissed the numbers out of hand is an outright lie and you know it.

I researched several packages, saw discrepancies in the numbers for each and every package and even posted some of the results which you choose to ignore. Some of the discrepancies were as great as 60%.

That fact that you choose to simply ignore the results and accept inaccuracies tells everyone here what they need to know about you and your position as well as your character.

Last edited by ferrels on 25-Jan-2019 at 05:21 PM.

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pavlor 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 25-Jan-2019 17:24:41
#64 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 10-Jul-2005
Posts: 9120
From: Unknown

@ferrels

Quote:
Don't worry, I was only trying to convince people who respond to facts and reason.


I fear you did not choose right forum then.

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ferrels 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 25-Jan-2019 17:40:58
#65 ]
Cult Member
Joined: 20-Oct-2005
Posts: 849
From: Arizona

@pavlor

Quote:
I fear you did not choose right forum then.


Yes, you may be right. When love is involved, reason gets thrown out of the window. And I can see that there's a lot of love here! LOL!

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cgutjahr 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 25-Jan-2019 17:53:29
#66 ]
Cult Member
Joined: 8-Mar-2003
Posts: 893
From: Unknown

@ferrels

Quote:

Yep, and here's why the Aminet numbers can't be trusted or used for any kind of analysis. You'll find similar discrepancies for just about any package you search.

Aminet reliably counts all HTTP downloads, the counter on a package overview page is perfectly accurate, i.e. your package has been downloaded 358 times so far:

http://aminet.net/package/gfx/show/plplot68k-5.0.1

Search results (that includes RECENT and all directory listings) are cached though - i.e. download counters in those listings are usually lagging behind a bit.

(up until a few minutes ago, the download counters in search results were lagging behind a lot - that was a bug in our display code, which I just fixed).

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ferrels 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 25-Jan-2019 18:06:08
#67 ]
Cult Member
Joined: 20-Oct-2005
Posts: 849
From: Arizona

@cgutjahr



Quote:
Aminet reliably counts all HTTP downloads, the counter on a package overview page is perfectly accurate,


No, Aminet hasn't been reliable or accurate up until and questionably today.....yesterday it showed a download number of 138 for the same package and the fact that you've taken the time to fix your code today only shows that my research was correct and motivated you to fix your code.


And for bhabbot to say that because there have been over 6K downloads of WormWars that this will somehow translate into how many copies of OS 3.1.4, or any OS, will be sold is ridiculous.

Last edited by ferrels on 25-Jan-2019 at 06:09 PM.

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cgutjahr 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 25-Jan-2019 18:32:53
#68 ]
Cult Member
Joined: 8-Mar-2003
Posts: 893
From: Unknown

@ferrels
Quote:

yesterday it showed a download number of 138 for the same package

In the search results, yes - because there was a bug in the display code. the direct url to your package has always displayed the correct number of downloads (358 yesterday, 358 today).

What I'm saying is that the downloads were counted properly all the time, but not displayed correctly in some places for a while. I.e. the numbers displayed now are perfectly reliable.

What you guys make of these numbers is up to you.

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ferrels 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 25-Jan-2019 18:40:29
#69 ]
Cult Member
Joined: 20-Oct-2005
Posts: 849
From: Arizona

@cgutjahr

Quote:
In the search results, yes - because there was a bug in the display code. the direct url to your package has always displayed the correct number of downloads (358 yesterday, 358 today). What I'm saying is that the downloads were counted properly all the time, but not displayed correctly in some places for a while. I.e. the numbers displayed now are perfectly reliable. What you guys make of these numbers is up to you.


Exactly! And I'm saying it's sheer folly to use the total download number for ANY package to determine how many active Amiga users are still out there or to predict how many copies of an OS will be sold. Anyone who has taken basic statistics knows this. These numbers are in no way a substitute for market research.

Last edited by ferrels on 25-Jan-2019 at 06:45 PM.
Last edited by ferrels on 25-Jan-2019 at 06:44 PM.

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matthey 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 25-Jan-2019 21:25:02
#70 ]
Cult Member
Joined: 14-Mar-2007
Posts: 809
From: Kansas

Quote:

ferrels wrote:
Exactly! And I'm saying it's sheer folly to use the total download number for ANY package to determine how many active Amiga users are still out there or to predict how many copies of an OS will be sold. Anyone who has taken basic statistics knows this. These number are in no way a substitute for market research.


I think the Aminet data can be used as one of several data points to get an idea of the minimum number of active Amiga users. Yes, some people downloaded multiple times and there were bots but not everyone downloads the same types of software either. I haven't downloaded WormWars. There are probably at least 5000 active 68k AmigaOS users from looking at Aminet (there is little reason for MorphOS or AmigaOS 4 users to dl because they have their own versions). This is pretty impressive considering how few 68k machines had ethernet in the '90s. It would be a good guess that many of these users are UAE users.

The Natami site was more for developers yet there were hundreds of developers and ex-developers there. There were more developers there than the Gateway Amiga show developer conference in St. Louis I attended where I had to stand even though the room was large (I don't remember the year but probably mid to late '90s when the Motorola employees spoke). The AmiWest developer conference size was embarrassing in comparison (ex-Amiga developers are developing for other computers and not even releasing Amiga versions of software anymore which is really sad). I was helping with the Natami FPGA core so Gunnar contacted me to continue development of the Phoenix/Apollo core. I am the person who suggested helping Majsta. His website talks about the number of orders which quickly grew to several hundred as the performance jumped 5-10 times from the TG68 core to the cut down (the FPGA was too small) Phoenix core even though it was only for an Amiga 600. He was swamped which is when kipper2k started helping with production. I suggested he raise his price where he was still trying to push it lower (I want lower prices for the Amiga too but he needs to survive and the demand at the low price was too much as he found out later). He recorded the early days on his web site. Just a few months after joining the Apollo Team he states, "Now, 30 more boards left for me to send, next 300 will be done by kipper2k in short period of time."

http://www.majsta.com/modules.php?name=News&file=categories&op=newindex&catid=1

Yes, the price went up later but the FPGA size and performance grew and a new version targeted the much more popular Amiga 500/1000/2000 (Amiga 1200 and stand alone versions should be popular too). I don't see how it is so hard to believe several thousand Vampires have been sold in some 5 years. When the FPGA Amigas first came out, people thought they were vaporware. EAB moderators warned me about talking about optimizing for "vaporware" FPGA CPUs in the developer section years ago. The technology is real and 68k Amiga users want faster, better, compatible and affordable hardware. I think Vampire sales are just scratching the surface of what the 68k market is capable of. Vampire sales numbers are believable in spite of the lack of business knowledge and marketing involved.

I believe the AmigaOS 3.1.4 sales number rumors are reasonable too. The AmigaOS is popular software for the Amiga. AmigaOS 3.5 and AmigaOS 3.9 seemed to sell well even though I couldn't find numbers for them.

We have 3 poor quality data points but they mostly corroborate themselves. It is likely that there are over 5000 active 68k Amiga users today. The Amiga probably needs a minimum of 50,000 active Amiga users to be viable though. Hyperion may be able to make a large profit off AmigaOS 3.1.4 with the current number of 68k users but only by stiffing people. Unfortunately, the Amiga continues to be sabotaged by poor business management.

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OneTimer1 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 25-Jan-2019 21:50:12
#71 ]
Cult Member
Joined: 3-Aug-2015
Posts: 603
From: Unknown

@bhabbott

Quote:

- when you don't like a fact, just call it 'fake news' and it goes away! Why would you not accept the 4000 figure?



It is only a fact if it comes from a trustworthy source.

So show me the source!

Show me a download counter I can trust, or show me someone who has really access to this numbers.

--

BTW.:

I had contact with Amiga hardware companies and 4000 Accelerator card in this short time, would have been a very high number at 1997 a time when we had 100 times the user base we have now.

I know how much boards you need for a price worthy productions and I know how often 68k products are 'currently out of stock' this means a lot of the 68k products do not sell more than 1000 units in three years.

Knowing this, I would not trust a fantasy number like 4000, until I know the source ... and a anonymous friend of a friend is no trustworthy source, not when it comes to facts.




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ferrels 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 25-Jan-2019 21:57:02
#72 ]
Cult Member
Joined: 20-Oct-2005
Posts: 849
From: Arizona

@matthey

I never said that Aminet couldn't be used as a source of good factual data. I said that the download counters being shown prior to today were inaccurate and shouldn't be used to make rash conclusions. And the fact that cgutjahr responded and modified the code on his site confirmed this, as did my own searches. The variation between the numbers was exceptionally high and even for the package I uploaded one number was showing 138 and the other was at 358. That's a variation 2.59 times higher! How were either of these calculated? We have no idea and it doesn't even matter at this point. To try and use those either of those numbers now for anything would be inviting disaster.

What amazes me is how this gets so many people's panties in a wad. I'm only asking the same questions that a board of investors or a bank is asking when a software developer makes his sales pitch when he's looking for investment capital. If you showed up in either location pitching Aminet download numbers as proof of potential sales, you'd be asked to leave pretty quickly.

We have no idea how Aminet's display numbers were calculated versus the numbers today that are supposedly correct. The fact that they didn't match at all until today is enough evidence for any statistician to disqualify the data for use or even give it a high confidence rating. And no banker or investor would risk any funds on such shaky info.

And until someone can show me some empirical data that proves a direct correlation between the download numbers of WormWars and the number of active Amiga users still left on the planet, I will continue to call bullsh@t on the premise that WormWars or any other package on Aminet can be used to predict sales numbers of OS 3.1.4. That pretty much sums up where I stand.



Last edited by ferrels on 25-Jan-2019 at 10:57 PM.
Last edited by ferrels on 25-Jan-2019 at 10:56 PM.
Last edited by ferrels on 25-Jan-2019 at 10:43 PM.
Last edited by ferrels on 25-Jan-2019 at 10:12 PM.

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OneTimer1 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 25-Jan-2019 22:04:17
#73 ]
Cult Member
Joined: 3-Aug-2015
Posts: 603
From: Unknown

Quote:

cgutjahr wrote:


Search results (that includes RECENT and all directory listings) are cached though - i.e. download counters in those listings are usually lagging behind a bit.


OK, if we call the ~6000 downloads (for different versions) of a software a correct number

So most of you might admit a number this low for a free software package, usable on most Amigas and UAEs, seems to be a very low number.

When it comes to an expensive product only usable on a fraction of Amigas I would consider less then 10% of this number as customers.

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ferrels 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 25-Jan-2019 22:19:26
#74 ]
Cult Member
Joined: 20-Oct-2005
Posts: 849
From: Arizona

@OneTimer1

Quote:
OK, if we call the ~6000 downloads (for different versions) of a software a correct number So most of you might admit a number this low for a free software package, usable on most Amigas and UAEs, seems to be a very low number. When it comes to an expensive product only usable on a fraction of Amigas I would consider less then 10% of this number as customers.


Thank you OneTimer1. And I would add that OS 3.1.4 isn't even required to play WormWars, not to mention that it probably runs quite well for OS4 user too, so to use the download number to predict OS 3.1.4 sales is lunacy. WormWars is certainly not an incentive for these downloaders to upgrade their OS.

Now that I think of it, maybe Ben Hermans fell for that bogus number of 4000 Vampire sales when he decided to take on contract programmers to develop OS 3.1.4. It would certainly explain a lot of what's going on in court these days and why his programmers never got paid.

Last edited by ferrels on 25-Jan-2019 at 10:46 PM.
Last edited by ferrels on 25-Jan-2019 at 10:35 PM.
Last edited by ferrels on 25-Jan-2019 at 10:34 PM.
Last edited by ferrels on 25-Jan-2019 at 10:27 PM.

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number6 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 16-Mar-2019 13:49:05
#75 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 25-Mar-2005
Posts: 10881
From: In the village

@thread

Trevor Dickinson has confirmed to have bought ExecSG in the AF

and from AF thru AP:

The fact that ExecSG A-EON is a fact, not a rumor mill, as well that Trevor can do well with Mike / Cloanto. And Cloanto are virtually the new AmigaInc.

Google translated, but obviously true.

#6

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This posting, in its entirety, represents solely the perspective of the author.
*Secrecy has served us so well*

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WolfToTheMoon 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 16-Mar-2019 14:16:20
#76 ]
Super Member
Joined: 2-Sep-2010
Posts: 1306
From: CRO

@number6

There are rumors that Hyperion asked some developers whether they're willing to do an Exec SG replacement.

This Trevor's move basically means Hyperion are screwed and that the OS is now a hostage of the parties involved in the litigation.

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kolla 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 16-Mar-2019 21:11:26
#77 ]
Super Member
Joined: 21-Aug-2003
Posts: 1521
From: Trondheim, Norway

My aminet downloads and searches are rarely counted, as I use my own mirror and my own "search engine". And I am probably not the only one.

_________________
B5D6A1D019D5D45BCC56F4782AC220D8B3E2A6CC

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TrevorDick 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 16-Mar-2019 22:23:31
#78 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 30-Dec-2004
Posts: 2669
From: Wellington

@number6

A correction to all the scuttlebut 'news' that is circulating around ExecSG. A-EON Technology Ltd does not own ExecSG. Period!

TrevorD


_________________
No, I don't need no reason, I'm just breezin'

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number6 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 16-Mar-2019 22:50:04
#79 ]
Elite Member
Joined: 25-Mar-2005
Posts: 10881
From: In the village

@TrevorDick

Thank you.

I understand the semantics used by a certain individual quite well.

#6

_________________
This posting, in its entirety, represents solely the perspective of the author.
*Secrecy has served us so well*

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lylehaze 
Re: Amiga Documents scuttlebutt on Hyperion
Posted on 16-Mar-2019 23:38:22
#80 ]
Super Member
Joined: 1-Sep-2004
Posts: 1128
From: North Florida - Big Bend area.

@TrevorDick

Quote:
Period!

Actually, that's an exclamation point.

On my best days, I enjoy the community in small doses.
Some days I am best left alone with GCC.

I believe Trevor knows me well enough that I don't need to worry.

_________________
question=(2b||!(2b))

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