@MikeB

Quote:

Be prepared, the first big one for this year is here:

Current death count:25. Sorry to those families who lost loved ones.
'First Big one'.

Last edited by BrianK on 30-Aug-2011 at 03:14 AM.

@BrianK

48 confirmed deaths, over 10 billion USD worth of damages (7b for the US). A laughing matter? I guess this is going to be a very funny hurricane season for you...

@MikeB

Quote:

I guess this is going to be a very funny hurricane season for you...

Your idea is the laughing matter. You're the one who has been telling us of this magical planet which is supposedly causing all this bad weather on earth. Turns out this has been a very quiet hurricane season. Irene was a hurricane at sea. It was perhaps a Cat 1 when it hit land. On average by this time of year we see about 3 hurricanes. Busy years as many as 8. If the wild guess of a magical planet was ramping up hurricanes I think we'd 8. In reality the US as at, perhaps, 1.

The other thing you have to look at is what is the history of hurricanes. One example was the 1900 Texas hurricane. It's one the legistator Ron Paul said we should repeat. This hurricane was a 'big one' with up to 8,000 people dead. They were buried in mass graves and at sea.

And certainly other hurricanes in the same area of the world give perspective too. In 1938 a Cat 3 hurricane hit the east coast. About 800-900 people died. Handling 1938 costs w/ inflation to 2011 dollars the cost would be $45Billion in damages.

50 dead or 8K dead. Which is the 'Big One'? $10Billion or $45Billion. Again, which is the 'Big One'. I hope this short bit of history put for you into perspective why your claim that this was the 'Big One' was laughed at.


My conclusion is the only way you can hold onto the magical planet hypothesis is your lack of or failing at history and statistics.

Last edited by BrianK on 30-Aug-2011 at 09:28 PM.

@MikeB

Quote:

48 confirmed deaths, over 10 billion USD worth of damages (7b for the US). A laughing matter? I guess this is going to be a very funny hurricane season for you...

Every death that ever occurs is an individual tragedy, but if you wish to know how major a disaster this particular occurrence of bad weather has been, I suggest you compare the casualty figures and damage values with another event. Can I suggest Katrina?

_________________
When in trouble, fear or doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.

@BrianK

I suggest you reread what I wrote. I stated it was the *first* big one for this year, not THE big one for this year. Traditionally the most likely period for THE big one to hit is early-mid september, september starts tomorrow.

On the 6th of august the estimates were that there's a 85% chance of an above normal active hurricane season and a 15% chance of an average hurricane season (which leaves a 0% chance of a below average hurricane season as you're suggesting here). Is Irene a reason to lower the expert estimates for the coming month? Of course not!

Last edited by MikeB on 31-Aug-2011 at 06:38 AM.

@MikeB

Quote:

I suggest you reread what I wrote. I stated it was the *first* big one for this year, not THE big one for this year.

MikeB it was the first one for the year clearly not a big one in historic perspectives. Perhaps you need to reread history of hurricanes on the North American continent. Katrina was another good recent example of a 'big one'.

EDIT: You'd do well to read and understand this. Confirmation Bias You seriously need to begin fixing your observational fallacies.

Last edited by BrianK on 31-Aug-2011 at 02:15 PM.

@BrianK

I think you are one weird fellow.

CBSnews writes Irene will likely end up in the top 10 most costly natural disasters for the US ever.

But even if that does not impress you another big trophical storm has already formed in the Atlantic and may develop like Irene into a major hurricane. It's this season's 11th named storm, with this fact already beating normal years, but the hurricane center previously predicted they expect October to become exceptionally though.

Speaking about bias, try to step back and re-evaluate yor own comments...

Last edited by MikeB on 31-Aug-2011 at 03:46 PM.

@MikeB

Quote:

But even if that does not impress you another big trophical storm has already formed in the Atlantic and may develop like Irene into a major hurricane. It's this season's 11th named storm, with this fact already beating normal years,

Yup high number of storms and a low number of hurricanes, just Irene. And the predictions were made w/o the magical planet. Which is telling, IMO. If a condition, magical planet, isn't necessary to make such predictions it's fairly telling that it's unlikely having influence on the earth. And in reality as we have magnetic and gravitational sensors abound around the earth and moon that aren't going wild. The evidence is strongly against the magical imaginary planet hypothesis.

@BrianK

As for the prediction for october they are based on factors for which the basis is not fully understood. One can estimate the seriousness of an illness based on symptoms without actually understanding the actual cause...

Nomatter you don't share the opinion that the root of current events could be caused by a non-publically known event, you can still try to discuss like an adult regarding correct and carefully worded comments written by me. You don't need to try to ridicule everything.

In any case trophical storm Katia has now officially been upgraded towards hurricane Katia and it is gaining force:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/nationnow/2011/08/tropical-storm-officially-becomes-hurricane-katia.html

Last edited by MikeB on 01-Sep-2011 at 06:58 AM.

@MikeB

The reason the '10 costliest disasters' ever doesn't impress me because the list wasn't adjusted for inflation. If you are going to measure 'big' it should be a measure as far as impact. That meas one must adjust for differences in population and differences inflation. The 1938 storm looks cheap at $310Million but adjusted to 2011 dollars it's 45 Billion. Much more costly on a value per dollar basis. Irene, by adjusted dollars is not so big. Additionally, one needs to adjust for population. Between 1920 and 2010 New England's population has increased 50%. And of course deaths were higher in 1938 and therefore deaths per capita were higher in 1938. Let's look at the adjusted figures. 1938 adjusted cost per capita was about $4,500 per person compared to 2011's $675 per person. 1938 deaths per person was .0008/person vs Irene's .0000067/person (note I used 100 so even this is a bit high.) You were talking Big One's this clearly was not a big hurricane and the impact was fairly modest.

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You don't need to try to ridicule everything.

Silly ideas held when all evidence is against them deserve ridicule. I'd argue it's immature behavior to accept ideas that facts clearly reject. That in itself is ridiculus.

I guess the difference here is I'm consciously ridiculing the ridiculus. It's a much less serious charge then the unconscious ridicule the magic planet guess has for facts and rationality.


Quote:

In any case trophical storm Katia has now officially been upgraded towards hurricane Katia and it is gaining force:

And again we see hurricanes every year. So far we're on the low side for North America. The problem here is that the facts do not support the idea of a magical planet being the root cause in 2011.

Last edited by BrianK on 01-Sep-2011 at 02:27 PM.

@MikeB

Quote:

In any case trophical storm Katia has now officially been upgraded towards hurricane Katia and it is gaining force:

While forecasted 3 days ago to be a hurricane it has not made it to the Cat 1 status. Current forecasts downgrade it to a tropical strom w/ ~20" of rainfall. Indeed a serious storm but not a big hurricane. http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/storm-news/gulf-states-brace-for-rain-from-td13gulf-states-brace-for-rain-from-td13-as-1812478.html?showComments=true

Have you been following the Elenin news? It appears around Aug 6th a solar flare hit the comet. It now appears to be falling apart. http://earthsky.org/space/has-comet-elenin-split-in-two-or-disintegrated

So much for the magical planet that was neither magical nor a planet. Science and nature again prove the 'sky is falling' doom-sayers incorrect.

@MikeB

Quote:

But even if that does not impress you another big trophical storm has already formed in the Atlantic and may develop like Irene into a major hurricane. It's this season's 11th named storm, with this fact already beating normal years, but the hurricane center previously predicted they expect October to become exceptionally though.

I had a quick look at the list of hurricane names for 2011 and found, as I suspected that the list starts with the letter A. Since the letter I is the 9th letter of the alphabet, you can see from the list that Irene is the 9th tropical storm of the year, not the 11th as claimed. Katrina, on the other hand was the 11th storm, and hit the USA mainland at New Orleans on 29th August. By my estimation that is two fewer storms in the same time frame.
Is this another example of the failure of conspiracy theorists to "do the math" as BrianK would put it.

_________________
When in trouble, fear or doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.

@Nimrod

Katia is the 11th named storm, its name would have been Katrina if not for Katrina's destructive history. Meanwhile Katia has intensified into a category 2 hurricane!

Last edited by MikeB on 04-Sep-2011 at 08:02 PM.

For those interested in how storms get their names. This is a good page.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

@BrianK

Katia strenghtened into a major hurricane just like Irene, a category 3 hurricane! Actually its on the tipping point of developing into a category 4 hurricane! This could very well develop into THE big one!

@MikeB

Quote:

Katia strenghtened into a major hurricane just like Irene, a category 3 hurricane! Actually its on the tipping point of developing into a category 4 hurricane! This could very well develop into THE big one!

Wall Street Journal stated that Irene had developed into a Cat-4 but has weakened to a Cat-3. U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami predicts Katia to further weaken in the next 24 hours. Also the Hurricane Center indicates Katia's direction is Northeast away from the USA Coastline. An important consideration on impact to America is an actual hit on America. If she travels out to the middle of the Atlantic and away from land we'll get some big waves, that's about it. Unless something radical happens the current forecast for Katia indicate Bermuda and the Bahamas might have some waves too large for surfing, no real US impact.

(EDIT: Here's the NOAA page on Katria . Check out the nice infographic on the storms path)

The next tropical storm Maria has about a 70% of chance of forming in the next couple of days. So perhaps you can hang your hat on her.

Last edited by BrianK on 06-Sep-2011 at 04:05 PM.

Katia is a bigger hurricane than Irene, Maria may be bigger still.

Last edited by MikeB on 06-Sep-2011 at 06:54 PM.

@MikeB

Quote:

Katia is a bigger hurricane than Irene, Maria may be bigger still.

Yup it was and is. It was downgraded to a Cat-1 today. It continues it's journey into the Atlantic and away from shorelines.

So while a 'bigger' hurricane it's impact is much less as the current forecast is some large swells. Aka surf's up, let's go hang 10.

@MikeB
I know that you want to believe that this year will be something special in the way of storms and earthquakes, in order to bolster your stories about doom & gloom emanating from an invisible killer planet, but lets just take a quick look at some of the facts.

The average number of named storms per year is 9.6, 5.9 of them being hurricanes. The predictions for this years season were for 17 named storms, 9 of them being hurricanes, and 5 of those hurricanes being major ones. While Maria has wandered off to the mid Atlantic, and is expected to arrive as a winter storm in northern Scotland, Nate is building up off Mexico, so yes this year will be busier than average.

This year is still lagging behind 2005 for the number of named storms, and by this date in 2005, five of them had been hurricanes, one at category 4, and two at category 5.

So yes, this is a busier than average year, but in no way is it a record breaking year, and no, it does not support your fantasy of an invisible killer force from outer space.

_________________
When in trouble, fear or doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.

How does these doomsday predicitons break the ability to think logically in the brain? http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/311128 -- This should be fairly approachable for most as the author didn't get overly scientific but tried to explain this process using plain everyday language even a bit fluffy.


EDIT: Here's another article from the same source. http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/310950 that reminds us 9/15/11 is the day of the prediction. Which makes me wonder if MikeB has bowed out as he hunkered down in the nearby WWII bomb shelter early?

EDIT2: Here's a similar article. http://www.signsinthesun.com/nibiru.htm Of course this person predicts 9/26/11. Others have predicted 9/25/11. Either way the beginning of this even is neigh. Though in reality nothing is going to happen. IMO it's important to save these. The reason is we're certain to see the goal post moved as the Nibiru/Elenin believers will claim to have made some mistake somewhere that incorrectly caused them to predict Sept of 2011 as the start. I suspect they'll begin claiming they went back to their charts and now know Dec 2012 will be the real start.

Last edited by BrianK on 09-Sep-2011 at 08:00 PM.
Last edited by BrianK on 09-Sep-2011 at 07:34 PM.